New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
A new Stockton University poll shows that two-thirds of New Jersey voters think immigration enforcement efforts in this country have gone too far, and 59% believe ICE’s deportation tactics are making communities less safe. How big a factor will ICE be in the 7th district congressional race?
Alex Wilkes: I think it’s a double-edged sword for Democrats because on the one hand, it’s an issue that animates their base, which is something that they will need in a Republican-leaning district. On the other hand, in order to make that argument fully and openly, the Democrats really must reveal their true “Abolish ICE / Sanctuary State” id, which is sure to turn off normal voters. I don’t care how strong the vibes are at the “No Kings” rally or in the Signal chat: moderate voters in CD7 do not want to hear fanatical arguments about mass amnesty or a borderless country. Even though it’s cloaked in “reform ICE,” I would also count the Democrats’ eventual push to defund the Department of Homeland Security through a government shutdown in what voters will ultimately find unacceptable. It’s early on in the cycle, and while Democrats may feel as though they have an opening with public opinion on one subset of the issue, they run a real risk of overplaying their hand because just as in 2024, they remain clueless about why normal people think we should have a say about who comes into our country and who does not.
Dan Bryan: Tom Kean Jr. is in serious trouble this November. While the Trump administration runs rampant on the constitution and the rule of law, Tom Kean Jr. is incapable of doing or saying anything that his bosses in the White House wouldn’t approve of. He was silent after the shootings in Minnesota, of course, because he’s *always* silent. He’s trying the old Jurassic Park maneuver: if I stand perfectly still and make no noise, maybe the T-Rex won’t notice I’m here.
But it’s about more than just ICE – he has proven, over and over, that he is incapable of standing up on behalf of his district. Whether it’s defunding Gateway, eliminating ACA subsidies, or kicking thousands of his constituents off Medicaid, Tom Kean Jr. will put his personal political ambition before his constituents every time.
If he and his team are worried about November, they should be. And Democrats now must nominate their strongest possible candidate to face him – though he’s beatable, he’s not yet beaten. To nominate a flawed candidate with baggage is to give Tom Kean Jr. and the Republican-controlled House a lifeline. This one is too important to mess up.
Attorney General Jennifer Davenport won’t appeal the dismissal of an indictment against George Norcross after an appellate court upheld a ruling by a trial court judge to throw the charges out. Was this the right move by Davenport?
Dan: It’s the right move. The case was dismissed by a trial court judge, and an appeals court unanimously upheld the decision. A further appeal was very unlikely to change the result, and as a new Attorney General, she clearly sees it’s time to move on and focus on other matters.
Alex: That’s promises made, promises kept for Mikie Sherrill, the Machine’s bought-and-paid-for Queen.
Can Attorney General Davenport leave the Office of Public Integrity and Accountability untouched, or does she need to rebuild it with new leadership and rebrand its mission?
Alex: The concepts of “overhaul” or “reform” are anathema to the Sherrill Administration.
Why? The status quo preserves the culture of corruption in this state. Who does that culture benefit? Machine Democrats who put Mikie in office. When the Governor-elect dared to ask some career public servants to resign – a normal part of a transition – the tantrum from the powers-that-be was so loud that she reversed course in a day.
I’m sorry to be another layer of wet snow in the middle of this blizzard, but we all need to internalize some basic facts. Whether it’s NJ Transit trains running an hour behind schedule or passing on changes to OPIA that would restore confidence to taxpayers beleaguered by the graft and waste, these operations will continue to be mismanaged because the mismanagement is the point.
Now, what Mikie could do is wield public opinion against the machine and use her Machine-created mandate to implement some real changes, but that’s too much work for someone who views Trenton as an unglamorous price to pay for returning to Washington in service to a future Democratic president.
Dan: I’m not a legal expert, but I do know public relations and branding. And, without a doubt, OPIA’s brand has been tarnished and has become a distraction from its mission. They have lost the trust of the media and, to the extent they are known, the trust of the public.
None of that means the work they are doing isn’t worthwhile – though the results have been mixed at best, public corruption cases are complex and challenging. But perception is reality, and whether it’s fair or not, the perception right now is that OPIA is identified with its high-profile losses.
Ultimately, whether through OPIA or another entity, New Jersey will always need strong and timely investigations into corruption and betrayals of the public’s trust. After 8 years, it’s not clear whether the creation of a separate public corruption unit from the Division of Criminal Justice has actually helped the fight against corruption. All options should be on the table to ensure that these cases are better investigated and prosecuted going forward.
Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary testified before the House Financial Services Committee that he’d like to build housing in New Jersey, but the state’s permitting process and construction delays scare away investors. O’Leary said if New Jersey fixes the permitting issues, capital will appear without delay. This isn’t a new concept, so why can’t governors fix this?
Dan: Governor Sherrill campaigned on making New Jersey an easier state in which to do business. That means overhauling our permitting structure and ensuring overly onerous regulations don’t scare away smart economic growth opportunities. None of this is easy – politicians like to talk generally about “red tape” they’d cut in office, but up close, they see regulations usually exist for a reason.
So how to ensure the proper protections stay in place while making it easier for businesses to operate here? It’s a massively complicated job, one the Governor and her team are already focused on. Her picks for head of the EDA, Evan Weiss, and his Chief of Staff, Sean Kennedy, are both world-class. They’ll be tasked with working with the Governor’s front office team to ensure her vision becomes a reality.
To combat the obvious Republican response here (not from my friend Alex, of course) who, I’m sure, would all say that these things aren’t fixed because Democrats control the state – where have you been? What real policies have you put forward?
One of the reasons Republicans have entered a “perpetual minority” state in New Jersey is their lack of a serious, popular policy agenda – voters have seen them as anti-Murphy and anti-Sherrill, but not particularly *for* anything other than vague platitudes.
If Republicans want to show they truly care about New Jersey’s business climate, they’ll applaud Governor Sherrill’s goals and work with her to get them done.
Alex: As a practical matter, you’re never going to get a more streamlined permitting approach unless you elect leaders committed to less government and fewer regulations at all levels.
Let’s take Mikie’s Dominos Tracker to illustrate this: if you need 10 different authorities across state, county, and municipal government to approve your toppings, that pizza may never leave the store (or fewer pizzas will). As a result, you’ll be hungry and you’ll go somewhere else to eat.
Kevin O’Leary isn’t wrong, and Governor Sherrill could certainly establish a culture shift from the top if she really wanted to, but the current system suits her just fine.
