A steep decline in immigration is largely responsible for slower New Jersey population growth, according to the latest national Census data.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent population estimates for states and counties, released Thursday, show “a historic decline in net international migration” nationwide. Immigration peaked at 2.7 million from July 1, 2023-June 30, 2024, according to Census estimates. Through June 2025, the figure was 1.3 million, for a one-year drop of more than 50%.
That decline “was caused by both a decrease in immigration and an increase in emigration,” or people moving out of the United States, according to Census Bureau staff. Population estimates for 2023-25 span “two periods of very different immigration policies for the United States.”
The Trump administration’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and crackdown clearly have had an impact, making it “much less attractive to come to the United States,” said Rutgers University Professor James Hughes, who studies the state’s demographic trends.
Peter Hepburn, a sociology professor at Rutgers University in Newark, said there was evidence “that Trump administration policies are having a chilling effect on immigration” across the country, and perhaps particularly in areas that previously welcomed larger numbers of immigrants. The declines, he said, should be “interpreted in light of the large increases in immigration that we saw during the Biden administration.”
The Census data show that the state’s population grew 0.4% between from mid-2024-mid-2025, to roughly 9.55 million. Immigration accounted for some of that growth, though a much smaller part than in recent years. Net international migration, which counts people moving to and leaving the United States, declined by more than half: In 2023-24, the figure was 121,000, and a year later it was 53,000. New Jersey’s net immigration decline was the fifth largest in the nation.
Net immigration slipped in neighboring states as well. New York saw a two-thirds decrease, to about 96,000. Pennsylvania was down 54%, to about 27,000. Florida had the greatest immigration influx, close to 179,000, though that was 37% lower than in the previous year.
Population changes can have wide-ranging ramifications, including the ability to fill jobs and fund local services and schools. Population totals dictate each state’s number of seats in the House of Representatives. Because of small population gains, New Jersey is not expected to lose a representative in the next congressional reapportionment.
New Jersey and other states have relied on immigration as a source of population growth due to the decline in fertility rates and the number of births, Hughes said.
“If we have not had substantial international immigration, we would have been losing population over the years, and it certainly has benefited the state,” he said.
Census officials estimate the net migration for the year ending June 30 could drop another 75% nationwide to 321,000. If the trend continues, New Jersey could experience negative net migration. The nation has not logged net negative migration in more than half a century.
In New Jersey last year, the population increase from net migration was fewer than 16,000 people. The prior year’s increase was about 86,000, or more than five times larger.
New Jersey continues to have more residents moving out than moving in, with an estimated 37,000 leaving in 2024-25. That’s significantly lower than after the COVID-19 pandemic, but slightly higher than the prior year.
Natural population growth, or the number of births minus deaths, was the larger population driver, accounting for close to two-thirds of the 42,000 increase. About 101,000 babies were born in New Jersey, slightly fewer than the prior year, while the number of deaths also dropped.
One area of concern about population decline is a smaller tax base to fund schools and other services, according to Jaime Grinberg, professor of educational foundations at Montclair State University.
“If not only older people or single people without children leave the state, and we notice that in certain regions of the state, too many parents with school-age children are leaving, then school populations dwindle,” Grinberg said. “This means steady costs for school districts serving fewer students, which, sooner or later, result in layoffs and budget cuts, among many other significant issues.”
All but one of New Jersey’s 21 counties — Cape May — gained population in the past year. Only Cape May has fewer residents than during the 2020 census, having lost about 1,900 people or about 2% of its total population.
In 2024-2025, Ocean County led in population growth, as it has for more than a decade. The fifth most populous county, Ocean saw almost 1% growth with the addition of about 5,400 people. Hughes said that’s a unique situation, due largely to migration from Brooklyn to the Jewish enclaves in and around Lakewood.
Essex County, the state’s second most populous, added close to 34,000 people.
Overall, New Jersey added about 260,000 people between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2025, for an increase of close to 3%. Net migration of about 158,000 people accounted for most of that.
