The San Antonio Spurs have evened the Western Conference finals at two games apiece after a 103-82 Game 4 win over the Thunder on the strength of a near perfect defensive performance.
Hell, it might’ve been actually perfect. I’m just assuming they did at least one thing wrong at some point. But you would have to be some kind of cynical sleuth to find it, because this was a masterpiece. And the thing is, it might actually be sustainable as the series shifts to what will be a monstrous Game 5 on Tuesday in Oklahoma City.
What did the Spurs do differently?
San Antonio’s young coach Mitch Johnson made a massive adjustment in Game 4 by backing off all the super high traps and double teams on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and committing to covering him for most of the game with a single defender and helpers squeezing down to the nail.
That last part is an important note, because it’s not as if San Antonio just allowed SGA to play one on one in open space. He will kill that kind of coverage. They still helped down off shooters, but by doing so at the nail instead of deploying a double team as soon as SGA crosses half court (as they did so often through the first three games) they remained in close enough proximity to their shooters to still have time to fly back out and meaningfully contest the 3s when SGA kicked out.
The result: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams and Jared McCain, who combined for 68 points and 12 3-pointers Game 3, scored just 12 points on two 3-pointers in Game 4. Consequently, the Thunder bench that outscored San Antonio’s reserves 76-23 in Game 3 only won the bench battle 32-30 on Sunday.
If OKC isn’t winning the bench battle significantly, then that means their starters have to beat the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama on the court. And so far, that hasn’t happened. For the series, the Spurs have thrashed Oklahoma City by 50 points with Wemby on the floor. They are minus-46 with him off. Do the math and that’s nearly a 100-point swing over four games based on one guy being on or off the court.
Which is to say, the Thunder were winning this series with their bench in the non-Wemby minutes. Caruso was the story. A 29% regular-season 3-point shooter had basically morphed into Steph Curry through the first three games by making 14 3-pointers at a 61% clip. He didn’t score a single point in Game 4, and OKC shot just 18% from 3 as a team.
Some of that is shooting variance, but a lot of it was how much more contested their shots were as the Spurs stopped ignoring them to send multiple bodies at SGA. Turns out, shooting 3s is a lot harder when you aren’t being left wide open. Who woulda thunk it.
Did SGA at least score big?
No. And that’s the real revelation here. SGA only scored 19 points on 6-of-15 shooting. Had SGA gone for 40 in Game 3, then the Spurs would be out of luck. They tried double covering and the shooters killed them; they tried single covering him and he killed them. But that didn’t happen for three reasons.
- 1. San Antonio has great individual perimeter defenders. Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, all these guys have proven throughout this series that they can stay in front of SGA (within reason) and apply physical pressure that genuinely impacts his rhythm and, ultimately, production.
- 2. San Antonio was still helping a lot on SGA. So these defenders weren’t on a total island. The Spurs continued to crowd SGA’s driving lanes and swoop down on him like vultures whenever he gained any kind of advantage. But again, it’s about the spots at which they were helping. When it’s 35 feet from the basket, you can’t get back to the shooters. When it’s at the elbow, or really anywhere inside the 3-point line, you can as long as you’re collectively committed to the cause. The Spurs were totally committed. You can come up with as many defensive schemes as you want, but in the end they all come down to effort. Top to bottom, the Spurs were full throttle all night long.
- 3. SGA had an off game. Some of that was San Antonio’s defense, but we know SGA can beat any defense on any night. This just wasn’t the one for him. It easily could be in Game 5.
This will get very interesting if SGA hangs a 40-piece in Game 5 and the Spurs go down 3-2. With their backs against the wall, will they still have the nerve to single cover SGA? Or will they go back to playing percentages and hope Alex Caruso and company can’t reignite. Maybe it won’t get to that point, and the Spurs can simply continue with this defensive game plan because of this last factor.
Will Ajay Mitchell play in Game 5?
Being down Jalen Williams hurts, but with Mitchell the Thunder still have a legit No. 2 scorer who can create his own offense. It was no accident that OKC entered Game 4 having outscored opponents by 25.1 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs with Mitchell on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.
First, he can flat out carry an offense for stretches if SGA doesn’t have it going and the shooters aren’t making shots; Mitchell is making 53% of his shots as a pick-and-roll creator in the playoffs, per NBA.com, and he’s a top-10 scorer on drives. But he also too much as a tandem scorer with SGA when the MVP is also cooking, because now Mitchell, a top-10 scorer on drives in this postseason, is getting to attack against scrambling defenses.
Williams can fill that role, too, but right now there’s no indication that he’ll be ready to go any time soon. Mitchell being out for Game 5 would allow San Antonio to double-down on its single coverage of Shai knowing that even if he goes for 40, who else is going help him if the shooters are accounted for and there isn’t a second scorer?
For my money, Mitchell’s status will be the biggest story leading up to Game 5. But in all honesty, even if he does play, and even if he’s not compromised, the Spurs might’ve already flipped this series. I’d still call it a 50/50 deal, but they made a move that changed the whole chess board on Sunday.
The thought was that single covering the MVP straight up was suicide, but instead it wound up holding the Thunder, who didn’t crack the 50-point mark until the 3:28 point of the third quarter, to their lowest playoff scoring output since 2020.
The champs can definitely still win this series. They have the home court for Game 5, and in a 2-2 best-of-seven series, the winner of Game 5 has historically gone on to win the series 82% of the time. They will definitely take their chances, but they also know they have a serious problem on their hands with this new wrinkle San Antonio has put into play.
