This article was reported by South Jersey Climate News, a nonprofit publishing partner of NJ Spotlight News.
In 2025, the Atlantic Ocean logged an active hurricane season, with three Category 5 storms.
This year, forecasters are predicting a below-normal season for the Atlantic. The main reason is an El Niño weather pattern whose winds tend to suppress tropical storms at sea.
“Most of the hurricane forecasts and predictions I’ve seen for the season are predicting a little bit less activity, and it’s mainly because of the El Niño event,” said Andra Garner, an associate professor in the Rowan University Department of Environmental Science.
Forecasters say 2026 has the potential for the strongest El Niño presence in 140 years, though that does not mean an absence of hurricanes for New Jersey. The National Weather Service expects one to three major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
No hurricanes last year delivered a direct hit to New Jersey. Hurricane Erin, though, brought high surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Cape May Harbor reached its fourth-highest level in two decades.
“Whether we’re talking about a really active hurricane season or one that might end up looking a little less active than average, it’s not likely that we’re going to have something where we have no hurricanes,” Garner said. “Once those storms form, then we want to keep an eye on their tracks to see if they become a threat to New Jersey.”
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, with most of the activity occurring from mid-August to early October.
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