The Iran war and high oil and gas prices have supercharged the adoption of renewables and EVs worldwide. Global investors say these technologies make financial sense and increase energy security.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Global oil prices have now fallen since their highs when the Iran war began. But those high prices had a lasting impact. And energy watchers say it’s accelerated the transition from oil and gas to renewable energy and electric vehicles. We’re joined now by NPR’s energy and climate solutions correspondent Julia Simon to talk about this. Good morning, Julia.
JULIA SIMON, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: So why do researchers see this war as so important in the global energy story?
SIMON: You know, this recent war really laid bare the precarity of fossil fuels. Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, which cut off oil and natural gas supplies. Prices obviously shot up. And, Leila, this is the second time in four years that you’re seeing this kind of major supply and price shock, the first being the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, you have countries turning to these technologies that are basically impervious to whatever happens in the Strait of Hormuz, those being solar batteries and electric vehicles.
FADEL: So countries aren’t just going back to fossil fuel imports?
SIMON: Yeah. The reason that many countries aren’t just going back to the same old fossil fuel imports is energy security. Many countries that import oil and natural gas feel like if a fossil fuel energy crisis happens again, they don’t want to be vulnerable to it. India is one example. Kaushik Deb leads the India team at the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute. He says, in India, they don’t want to rely on imported energy.
KAUSHIK DEB: What this crisis is doing is kind of creating the need for this energy transition to happen much faster. And this is where the transformation to electric in the transportation side or increasing the share of renewables in the electricity grid is kind of so, so, so central.
SIMON: And there is another reason, Leila, why many countries are less interested in importing fossil fuels. And that’s that the alternative, solar batteries and EVs, have gotten a lot cheaper.
FADEL: And I’m assuming that has to do with China.
SIMON: You are right. China has dramatically increased production of these technologies and drove down the cost. And China’s just churning out exports all around the world. Chinese battery exports, they’re up 69% in March compared to last year. And their solar exports in March are up 84% compared to last year. Dele Kuti is global head of energy and infrastructure for Standard Bank. That’s the largest bank in Africa. He says because of cheap Chinese technologies, investing in these solar projects across Africa just makes financial sense.
DELE KUTI: China’s crashed the markets. Then we started looking at, you know, when it comes to solar projects, it’s actually not bad, you know, from cost perspective.
SIMON: So you have developing economies developing with renewable energy in addition to fossil fuels.
FADEL: OK. So what does this all mean for long-term oil demand?
SIMON: It doesn’t look good for oil long term, Leila. With all these new EVs, that means a lot less people filling up their cars with gas around the world. Before the war in Iran, the International Energy Agency was expecting global oil demand to rise this year. But the disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz led them to downgrade expectations to a decline in oil demand this year.
FADEL: So, Julia, you told us the global story. But what about here in the U.S.? What’s the story here?
SIMON: Here in the U.S., the Trump administration is doubling down on oil, natural gas and coal. EV sales may be up in the rest of the world, not in the U.S. In the U.S, new EV sales are down, according to Cox Automotive. So, in some ways, the U.S. is becoming an outlier in the global energy transition.
FADEL: That’s NPR’s Julia Simon. Thank you, Julia.
SIMON: Thank you, Leila.
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