Cheaper egg prices have muted public discussion on one of the most serious threats to American agriculture this century: bird flu. But the problem has not disappeared. In fact, the data suggest that the virus will bring devastating animal and economic losses this winter.
Since 2022, an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza has resulted in the loss of nearly 185 million birds raised for food. If these animals were people, it would be half the U.S. population. Most of the animals have not died from the flu; rather, they are housed near infected flocks and have been killed preemptively, in accordance with federal policy.
Predictably, after a summer lull, 25 states have had cases in the last month. Our analysis of data from the Department of Agriculture reveals that we’ve gained almost no ground since the beginning of the outbreak in 2022. January 2025 was the worst month on record. In fact, 2025 was a worse year overall than 2024, which was worse than 2023. The egg industry has taken the brunt, representing 75% of lost animals. Turkeys account for about 11%, meat chickens, 8%.
And yet, the solution is on agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins’ desk: Vaccinate the animals.
This is Groundhog Day: Winter explosion of bird flu, animal destruction, barn restocking, repeat. The government is sticking with this plan, rejecting vaccination on the grounds that we lack effective vaccines and that their use would create trade barriers. But highly effective, USDA-licensed vaccines — that the government has paid to develop — are available, and trade agreements can be renegotiated.
The USDA has built its response around the notion that wild animals, contaminated workers, and farm equipment are sparking these outbreaks. So they eliminate poultry flocks and attempt to secure the premises from recontamination (known as biosecurity). But this strategy is failing. Evidence is mounting that the virus may be carried by wind, thwarting even the best biosecurity. Moreover, for the first time, avian influenza has become endemic in wild birds. This shift, according to poultry veterinarians, renders the current approach “unsustainable against the threat of” avian flu.
The costs of withholding vaccination are everywhere:
In needless burden on taxpayers: The USDA spent $1.8 billion on response in the first three years, mostly on indemnification payments to farmers. Expect more of this, not less.
In direct costs to consumers: In one year of the outbreak, consumers spent $14.5 billion more on eggs, the result of supply reduction and possibly corporate price gouging.
In the risk to the health, physical and mental, of the people doing the killing: Most of the people infected have worked with infected livestock.
In animal welfare: Most of the animals have been “depopulated” — industry euphemism for mass killing — by shutting down ventilation to barns and pumping in heat, leading to an excruciating and prolonged death via heatstroke. This is illegal in other countries because of its cruelty.
In increased pandemic potential: The more opportunity the virus has to infect people, the greater the risk it will get better at doing just that. Global experts continually flag the need for a One Health approach, including poultry vaccination, before it’s too late.
Vaccination, the obvious strategy, means more animals remain healthy, fewer are culled, and the USDA spends way less paying farmers. France reduced its outbreak size by up to 99% when it vaccinated ducks. We can, too.
The government already knows this. The USDA has poured money into bird flu vaccine development for years and has licensed at least eight vaccines. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-N.D.) introduced a bill to require a vaccination strategy. Dozens of bipartisan congressional members, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) have publicly urged the administration to pursue a targeted strategy. Major farming trade groups agree.
But the official USDA policy remains limited to biosecurity and mass killing. This is because some undeclared number of trading partners reportedly do business with us on the understanding that we do not vaccinate, and might prohibit imports from us if we did. The concern is that if a country vaccinates its animals, they could still become infected subclinically, leading to invisible infections. So the real trade barrier isn’t vaccination, it’s infection: Countries don’t want to import infected animals or contaminated products.
The answer is diagnostic testing. We can surveil flocks for low-level infections and provide confidence to importers that their poultry will be disease-free. Armed with this solution, industry heavyweights are advocating for a new approach based on vaccination coupled with effective surveillance. The World Organization for Animal Health agrees that vaccination tied to surveillance is compatible with safe trade.
The USDA has finally announced that it has a draft national vaccination strategy. But its future is unclear, because Rollins has also said vaccines are “off the table” and aligned herself with comments that health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made in opposition to vaccinating flocks. She cited the ineffectiveness of vaccines used in Mexico, failing to note that the superior U.S.-developed vaccines have proven effective in testing.
Vaccinating and testing will work. Depopulation will still be needed when infection strikes, especially because it is unlikely all U.S. poultry would be vaccinated, but the USDA can require higher-welfare culling methods to deal with these scenarios. So let’s renegotiate the trade agreements. It’s happening every day for tariffs; why not for chickens?
Instead of taking vaccination off the table, Rollins can take H5N1 off the table. Doing so would be a rare win all around: for taxpayers, for human health, and in no small way, for the welfare of the animals who provide this food for us.
Ellen P. Carlin and Gwendolen Reyes-Illg are veterinary scientists. They serve as senior policy adviser and president, respectively, of the Veterinary Association for Farm Animal Welfare.
