Nearly 24 million Americans could see their health insurance premiums spike by upwards of 75% in 2026.
That’s how many people are enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace health insurance program, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).
Since 2021, the majority of them have received pandemic-era tax credits that reduce their insurance premiums.
Those subsidies have been a lifeline for freelancers, gig workers and small business owners — representing nearly half of the enrollees in the program. They’ve also been a boon to early retirees who don’t qualify for Medicare (1).
“This made it easier to get (health) insurance and importantly freed workers to start new businesses without fear of becoming uninsured,” MIT economics professor Jonathan Gruber told Newsweek (2).
But that’s all changing. The tax credits expire at the end of 2025, and President Donald Trump has made no move to extend them.
Gruber adds that the end of the tax credits is triggering a surge in health insurance costs across the board, with insurers planning to raise premiums by upwards of 18%. This in turn will raise the cost of government health insurance plans.
In other words, the end of the tax credits will impact anyone who needs health insurance. Here’s why.
Insurers know that the end of the subsidies will mean some ACA Marketplace policyholders — particularly small business owners, self-employed individuals and retirees who are too young to qualify for Medicare — will drop their insurance altogether.
As Joseph Newhouse, a professor of health policy and management at Harvard University, told Newsweek, others may move to less generous plans with lower premiums.
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When healthier people drop or downgrade coverage, premiums rise for everyone left behind. Insurers have already priced that in, which is why they’re poised to raise premiums by 18%.
As if rising premiums weren’t enough, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) just issued guidance suggesting that states can’t block medical debt from appearing on credit reports, according to the National Consumer Law Center (3).
