Mortgage rates ended February near their lowest levels since 2022. But can rates keep falling? That seems unlikely, mortgage experts say.
The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut its benchmark rate at its March meeting, reflecting a mostly healthy economy. While the central bank doesn’t control mortgage rates directly, it does set the tone. Meanwhile, housing economists see little on the horizon that would push mortgage rates down.
As of Feb. 25, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.10%, according to Bankrate’s weekly lender survey.
“There is downward momentum in mortgage rates, but a catalyst for a significant step lower has not yet materialized,” says Stephen Kates, Bankrate’s financial analyst. “Without direct intervention from the Federal Reserve or the federal government, mortgage rates are more likely to drift gradually lower as inflation risks and economic uncertainty continue to ease. Buyers and refinancers should be on the lookout for sub-6% rates over the next few months.”
Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
Most housing economists say it’s unlikely rates will fall much farther. Fannie Mae predicts rates will hover around 6% for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
But mortgage rates are nothing if not volatile, and other factors could push them higher.
“Wildcards like new tariffs, private-sector layoffs, changes in Federal Reserve leadership and potential international conflict could cast a shadow over the sunny lower-rate environment,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.
The median national home price clocked in at $396,800 in January, a record high for the month, according to the National Association of Realtors. “March is when the spring homebuying season typically begins to ramp up, and with rates at a three-and-a-half year low, it could be a barn burner of a spring homebuying season,” Sturtevant says.
Bankrate’s weekly mortgage rate averages differ slightly from the statistics reported by Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprise that buys mortgages and packages them as securities. Bankrate’s rates tend to be higher because they include origination points and other costs, while Freddie Mac removes those figures and reports them separately. However, both Bankrate and Freddie Mac report similar overall trends in mortgage rates.
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