Nasdaq Slips, Gold and Silver Stage Substantial Recovery

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.24%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Nasdaq down significantly despite robust earnings from Palantir Technologies and Teradyne sparked a rally in technology stocks.  Palantir Technologies is up more than +5% after forecasting 2026 revenue that significantly exceeded expectations.  Also, Teradyne is up by more than +8% after forecasting Q1 revenue well above consensus.

Mining stocks are also climbing today, with the price of gold up more than +6% and silver prices soaring more than +13%.  Precious metals are rebounding after the sharp selloff seen over the past two sessions.

On the negative side for stocks is an -18% plunge in PayPal Holdings, which is weighing on the Nasdaq 100.  Also, higher bond yields are undercutting stocks after strong US manufacturing data on Monday, and hawkish Fed comments have curbed expectations for additional rate cuts.  The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 1.5-week high today at 4.3%.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said today that the US economic outlook is improving as uncertainty fades, but risks remain, with hiring concentrated in a few sectors and inflation still running above the Fed’s goal.

The partial US government shutdown, now in its fourth day on Tuesday, has dampened investor sentiment as markets await the House’s approval of a funding deal President Trump worked out with Democrats.  The funding lapse may be short-lived, however, with the House possibly voting on the spending bill later today.  The partial shutdown has already prompted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to delay the release of today’s Dec JOLTS job opening report and Friday’s Jan nonfarm payrolls report.

The markets this week will focus on earnings, economic news, and the passage of a spending bill to end the partial government shutdown.  On Wednesday, the Jan ADP employment change is expected to increase by +45,000.  Also, the Jan ISM services index is expected to fall by -0.3 to 53.5. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to increase by 3,000 to 212,000.  On Friday, the University of Michigan Jan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -1.5 to 54.9. 

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, with 150 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 78% of the 167 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 9% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are…