As a Republican in Florida, of course I’d like to see more GOP congressional seats. But the question is: At what cost?
More seats mean more power and more control. But the drive to draw new district boundary lines that could result in as many as five more seats for Republicans carries a very real threat of backfiring. Caution is in order.
On Tuesday, a Democrat flipped a state House seat in a district that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 11 points. That result shouldn’t be dismissed as an anomaly. It was a bad night for Republicans, but it’s also a reminder that voter loyalty isn’t a guarantee and coalitions aren’t permanent.
That’s why Gov. Ron DeSantis’ push to redraw Florida’s congressional maps is a risky play. Starting April 20, lawmakers are scheduled to take up redistricting in a special session. Redistricting usually takes place once every 10 years, based on census data. An effort to challenge DeSantis’ call to revisit the maps was struck down by the Florida Supreme Court.
Republicans control the Legislature, and they have the authority to revise the map, but just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. You don’t have to listen to me. Florida Republicans are sounding the alarm — publicly.
Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, told Politico, “I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk.” Districts that were won by eight or nine points could see their margins cut in half, he said, putting them within reach of Democrats.
The districts likely to be redrawn are those based on racial considerations — many of which are held by Democrats, Politico reported this week. But Republicans acknowledge changing those lines could also affect GOP-held seats. In Miami, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart’s district could become competitive.
Diaz-Balart has warned, “You could potentially do two [new GOP seats.] I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”
Former speaker of the Florida House, Republican Rep. Daniel Webster urged caution, telling Punchbowl, “Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning. I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
When Republicans are urging restraint, it’s worth paying attention. Mid-cycle redistricting creates uncertainty in a map that has already proven favorable to the GOP. Even small shifts in district boundaries can make reliably red districts more competitive — giving Democrats an opening where none existed before.
Republican lawmakers may underestimate how safe their current GOP districts are.
State Rep. John Rutherford, a Republican from Jacksonville, told Politico, “I don’t like this redistricting stuff, but if they think they can get another two seats or something, have at it.” Rutherford noted that South Florida would likely suffer the most from changes to the map.
New maps could turn Miami’s three Republican-held seats held by Reps. Maria Salazar, Carlos Gimenez and Diaz-Balart into prime targets for the Democratic Congressional Committee.
Gimenez said he recognizes the risks: “They need to be really careful. They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”
Is the creation of more Republican seats worth the risk of possibly ending up with fewer? That’s a gamble I wouldn’t take.
Redistricting to create short-term advantages could have the opposite effect — opening the doors for long-term losses. In the GOP’s quest to gain a seat or two, Republicans could put several at risk.
Florida Republicans didn’t win by gaming the system. They won by expanding coalitions, improving voter outreach and focusing on issues that resonate. That strategy turned Florida from a purple state into a Republican stronghold.
Why jeopardize it now?
If Republicans want to grow their congressional delegation, there are smarter ways to do it — by competing in districts currently held by Democrats such as Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Rep. Jared Moskowitz.
The groundwork is already laid. No redistricting needed.
The greatest threat to the GOP majority in Florida isn’t Democrats. It’s the temptation to overreach — and the consequences that follow.
Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board.
