Shocking jobs data resets recession bets

For the second straight month, the U.S. Labor Department will not publish its economic report due to the government shutdown, which is now the longest on record.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys businesses and households to produce the employment report, so without that data, it’s hard to get a clear view of the jobs market.

But the anecdotal data isn’t inspiring much confidence.

Amazon, UPS, and Target, three of the largest employers in the country, have already announced plans to lay off tens of thousands of workers in the coming weeks.

• Target revealed plans in late October to eliminate 1,800 corporate jobs, marking its second-largest corporate downsizing ever.

• Amazon announced another round of layoffs just before the holidays. The cuts affected 14,000 corporate employees across multiple departments, aiming to reduce bureaucracy by “removing layers and shifting resources” to better serve its investments and customers.

• UPS in a press release shared that it has cut about 48,000 jobs so far this year, including 34,000 positions through its Network Reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined program.

However, additional metrics can help gauge the strength of the market, such as the monthly jobs survey produced by outplacement consultancy firm Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.

Data from the October jobs report from Challenger, Gray, & Christmas are worrying.

U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in the month, nearly triple the 55,597 cuts that were announced during this month last year. Perhaps even more concerning, lost jobs are also up 183% from September.

• Correcting headcount after overhiring during Covid pandemic

• Softening consumer and corporate spending

• Rising costs due to belt-tightening and hiring freezes

• AI adoption

Related: Layoffs commence at two major tech giants

According to the firm, the job cuts are creating a snowball effect that is further eroding the job market.

“Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.

Through October, employers have announced 1.1 million job cuts, a 65% year-over-year increase from the 665,000 that were cut through October last year.

Employers have already cut 44% more jobs through October than they did in all of 2024. According to Challenger, 2025 has been the worst year for job cuts since employers cut 2.3 million in 2020.

And the problem is multifaceted.

Not only did individual companies announce large layoff totals, but a larger number of companies also cut jobs. Nearly 450 companies reported job cut plans in October, compared to 400 in September.

The job cuts are uneven, affecting different industries differently.

However, patterns are starting to emerge, showing that lower-skilled, blue-collar job cuts are declining, while higher-skilled, white-collar job cuts are accelerating.

Related: BofA sees consumer pain increasing from controversial economic policy

• Technology: 33,281 (5,639)

• Retail: 2,431 (2,577)

• Services: 1,990 (6,290)

• Warehousing: 47,878 (984)

• Consumer products: 3,409 (1,983)

Employers used to refrain from cutting jobs during the holiday quarter. Between 2003 and 2013, the fourth quarter averaged 74,733 job cuts a month. In the next decade, the monthly average in the fourth quarter fell to about 43,000. For October, the average job cut total from 2014 to 2024 was 47,000.

Challenger explained:

U.S. employers have announced 488,077 planned hires through October, a 35% decline from the more than 750,000 that were announced this time last year.

According to Challenger, this has been the weakest job creation market since 2011, when 460,000 new hires were planned. On average, employers have announced nearly 49,000 new hires per month, again marking the lowest level since 2011, when 44,798 were announced monthly.

Warehousing was one of the few blue-collar job industries to experience a sharp increase in job cuts, and that is reflected in seasonal hiring plans for the industry.

Usually, in the fourth quarter, delivery companies like Amazon, UPS, and FedEx hire a large number of seasonal workers to deliver Christmas presents to their destinations.

But so far, employers have only announced 372,520 seasonal hires through October, the lowest number announced since 2012.

“It’s possible with rate cuts and a strong showing in November, companies may make a late season push for employees, but at this point, we do not expect a strong seasonal hiring environment in 2025,” said Challenger.

Amazon, Target, Salesforce, and Oracle aren’t alone when it comes to reducing headcount ahead of the holidays.

According to tech market intelligence firm UnearthInsight, as many as 500,000 white-collar software workers could be laid off over the next two to three years, with approximately 70% of those layoffs affecting workers with four to 12 years of experience.

However, some critics argue that these companies are merely blaming AI for the job cuts, when the real issue was actually overhiring during the pandemic.

“I’m really skeptical whether the layoffs that we see currently are really due to true efficiency gains. It’s rather really a projection into AI in the sense of ‘We can use AI to make good excuses,’” Fabian Stephany, assistant professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute, told CNBC.

“It’s to some extent firing people that for whom there had not been a sustainable long-term perspective, and instead of saying ‘We miscalculated this two, three years ago,’ they can now come to the scapegoating, and that is saying, ‘It’s because of AI, though.’”

Related: Ubisoft ‘soft layoffs’ expected after latest announcement

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Nov 9, 2025, where it first appeared in the Employment section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.