Key events
Laurie Daley has got one hell of a half-time on his hands. It would be an almighty upset were the Blues not to win this series considering the talent at their disposal and a decider on home turf. But NSW have not clicked at all in Sydney. The insistence on attacking down the left is not paying off, but the combinations to the right are clearly not as well honed.
Defensively they look disjointed too, for pretty much the first time this series, with Martin, A Crichton, and Haas looking mortal, and Mitchell looking vulnerable to Toia’s step and Tabuai-Fidow’s pace.
That was a surgical display from the Maroons. Old-fashioned disciplined rugby league.
They completed every single one of their 21 sets! Zero handling errors. Zero set-restarts. Two penalties (one of which was questionable). And the intangible of composure and confidence, especially in defence, where the line has moved up assuredly – especially shutting down the NSW left edge, and the poise of Coates and Tabuai-Fidow under the high ball.
Storm teammates Loiero and Grant both have over 20 tackles apiece. Dearden has shone both ways. Papali’i went full bore for 20 minutes then Carrigan continued his good work thereafter.
As close to faultless as you could get considering the circumstances.
Half-time: NSW 0-20 Queensland
One of the all-time extraordinary halves of Origin footy.
40 mins: This is stunning from the Maroons.
CONVERTED TRY! NSW 0-20 Queensland (Grant 38)
Mitchell goes long from the drop-out but Collins, then Capewell bust holes in the NSW defence. Dearden is almost through! Then Grant is! Classic try from dummy-half for the schemer, spotting an inch of space between the defensive markers and the padded post. Then he’s too strong for Martin and Edwards, wrestling his way to the turf.
Holmes continues his flawless night with his boot.
38 mins: Queensland invite runners from all angles to hit the line. Shibasaki dances from left to right, sets up Toia to step inside Mitchell but he’s hauled in with the line in sight. NSW are scrambling, but they do just enough until Munster lofts a chip to the left corner but Lomax wins the aerial challenge with Coates, but concedes the drop out.
36 mins: To’o runs hard, Utoikamanu gets an offload, but when the Blues try to expand – this time to the right – there’s no cohesion and the ball bounces off Lomax for a turnover. Queensland’s defence continues to be superb. Carrigan runs hard through the middle, then Munster, who looks for Tabuai-Fidow on his inside but the fullback is taken out off the ball. The on-field decision goes against Queensland for a knock-on, but Munster challenges and the decision goes his way from one quick replay. Dearden kicks to the 20m line. “The most important set of six for the series coming up,” says Andrew Johns.
34 mins: The Blues continue to look to the left for Mitchell and his offloads, but they’re not coming off yet. Queensland’s defensive structure and intensity has been first class. A good bomb to the right sees Lomax take flight near the touchline. He wins the contest but when he palms the ball infield it bounces off a Maroon and into a teammate’s hand. But NSW then turn on their best defensive set of the night so far, steaming at the Queenslander’s forcing Dearden to kick from his own 30. The hosts get a full set from halfway.
32 mins: More field position footy from both teams, exchaging sets either side of halfway. It suits Queensland, with their lead, but seems uncharacteristically cagey from the Blues.
30 mins: NSW go to the right for the first time in ages but Shibasaki is strong and holds up Lomax. Queensland counter through Holmes and Dearden, allowing Munster to kick high and long from halfway. Billy Slater will be a chuffed coach right now. This is textbook rugby league.
28 mins: This is dreamland stuff from the Maroons. They have been practically faultless. Another restart set is executed without fuss and Dearden’s bomb keeps the Blues honest.
CONVERTED TRY! NSW 0-14 Queensland (Dearden 26)
Capewell is busy again with some metres after contact but Queensland are struggling to make inroads coming out of defence and the Blues are gaining field position. Cleary bombs from 30 – and yet again Coates times his jump beautifully, then runs out to the 20m line. The Maroons decide to spin the ball wide for a change and Toia does well to engage two Blues on the right touchline – but then he looks like he’s going to be ragdolled into touch… but he offloads from nowhere! To Tabuai-Fidow who waltzes around a soft A Crichton tackle. IS there support? Yes! Dearden on the inside, and he receives the assist as Edwards is drawn to the ball-carrier and sprint unopposed for 35m under the posts! Queensland on fire! NSW stopped when they thought Toia was being dragged into touch.
Holmes makes it 3/3 from under the crossbar.
24 mins: Queensland look to be fatiguing coming out of defence but a Grant dart from dummy-half takes them almost to halfway and territorial parity. The Blues are keeping their powder dry for the time being other than the occasional carve to the left, where they are being easily dealt with. On this occasion when they try it Mitchell gets away with a blatant forward pass to To’o that isn’t called.
22 mins: A Haas offload takes play to the Queensland 30m line but there’s nothing flash from the Blues until Cleary’s bomb on the last that is swooped upon with grace in the air by Coates. The Maroons lack cohesion coming out of defence so Dearden is forced to kick from his 40. To’o, then Mitchell run the ball back, the latter finding a rare offload. Excellent snipe from Robson sets up a quick ruck but whenever the BLues go left Queensland’s defensive line is up as one in a flash. Luai’s kick on the last is once again easy pickings for Coates.
20 mins: This has been a disciplined, efficient, effective opening from the visitors. Excellent clutch rugby league. Another restart set reaches halfway courtesy of Carrigan and Tino. Munster’s bomb draws Edwards forward but Shibasaki is penalised for aerial contact. It seemed a harsh decision. NSW kick to their 40m line and begin their comeback.
CONVERTED TRY! NSW 0-8 Queensland (Coates 18)
On the right edge Carrigan and Tino draw tacklers in with their mass, then on tackle four Queensland cut to the left. The line is deep, the hands are sharp, but is there space? There is after Shibasaki is too strong for Lomax jamming in from the right but missing his mark. The debutant offloads to Coates who is unstoppable diving into the left corner from 5m out. Excellent try.
Holmes continues his potentially series-defining form off the tee with a majestic touchline conversion.
17 mins: Queensland’s first break! Dearden with the show and go, draws in Luai and Mitchell, then he releases Cotter in the right channel. He’s hauled in but Tabuai-Fidow is on his shoulder – but the ball doesn’t stick. There’s some scrambled broken field play until Grant is tackled without the ball and the Maroons get a full set 10m out.
16 mins: The Blues go one-out for a full set, like a boxer testing the chin of their opponent with repeat jabs. Then they open up to their preferred left, but the Maroon defence is up quick-smart to shut down the space and eventually To’o knocks-on under immense pressure. Queensland have been drilled well defensively.
14 mins: A little bit of chaos on the NSW left edge as Cleary tries to go through hands but Toia takes man and ball and sends the Steeden back from the 20m line out to the 40. The Blues scramble, reload and then on the last Mitchell grubbers down the channel for Tabuai-Fidow to slap out of play. The drop-out is short but won back by the Blues and Haas sets up attacking field position 20m out in centre-field.
12 mins: Compared to the previous two matches this is a conventional game of top lvel rugby league. Few errors, few risks taken early on, percentages played. Another solid set from Queensland ends with a Munster bomb and after Lomax fields it he’s set upon by a gang of Maroons who leave the Eel a little shaken. BOSH! Then Holmes lines up A Crichton on the edge with a real enforcing hit – but on the next tackle – NSW’s fifth – there’s an infringement at the ruck and the Blues kick to halfway to set off their first meaningful attack.
10 mins: Papali’i rumbles into the blue wall from the restart, then has a second carry in the set as Capewell gets through some work. Another safe and solid set allows Dearden to kick long. Nothing flash at all from the visitors so far. NSW also conservative to establish field position, Cleary kicking on halfway.
PENALTY! NSW 0-2 Queensland (Holmes 8)
Just to the left of the posts, 30m out, Holmes continues his excellent goal-kicking series with a sweetly struck curling penalty.
7 mins: With seven tackles up their sleeve Queensland march downfield with confidence and by 30m from home S Crichton is penalised for a lazy high shot on the rampaging Capewell. Munster takes a breath then invites Valentine Holmes to kick for goal.
6 mins: The Maroons make little ground on their set but a bobbling kick helps the chasing pack make good ground. Queensland are keeping things tight but NSW are looking to expand, offloading early and playing the ball quickly. Yeo busts through the middle of the field and sets up a shearing break on the right. The Blues are rapid! But on the last Luai overhits his lob and it’s an easy mark in-goal to give the visitors some respite.
4 mins: Papali’i is strong again as the early arm-wrestle continues either side of halfway, but there is a big hit on the debutant Shibasaki that costs Queensland metres. Shibasaki is involved in defence soon afterwards as the first break of the night is made by S Crighton who feeds Martin down the right wing but Grant is over to make a brilliant tackle. NSW go from right to left then Mitchell goes to the boot early but it’s an unthreatening grubber that Tabuai-Fidow handles safely at fullback.
2 mins: Big Papa takes the first hit-up of the night, mullet flowing behind him. Then another bemulleted Queenslander in Tino has a dart. The Maroons get to halfway without any scares and Munster kicks deep to Edwards. To’o gets an early test of his knee with a strong run, then Lomax and King get busy before Haas dispels any worries over his fitness with a powerful carry. Another safe set and deep kick.
Kick-off!
The final 80 minutes of Origin action for 2025 is under way…
Cameron Munster gathers his troops into a huddle and gives them a rousing gee-up. Isaah Yeo is more controlled with his Blues. Let battle commence.
And now a much more relaxed Isaah Yeo leads his Blues onto the pretty threadbare turf, cheered on by 80-odd thousand supporters.
Out come the Maroons, led by a focussed-looking Cameron Munster. A chorus of boos greets their entrance to the playing arena.
I almost forgot – Ashley Klein is your referee tonight, much to the delight of Blues supporters.
A reminder of the two line-ups.
Ok, we’re pretty much set in Sydney. Accor Stadium is packed. All the talking has been done. It’s over to the two sets of players to decide the winner of the 2025 State of Origin.
Weather forecast.
It’s been a mild and dry winter’s day in Sydney but a northerly breeze has picked up during the afternoon which may become a factor. A short while ago Harry Grant also mentioned how dew can be an issue at Accor Stadium if there isn’t any breeze, so choose your poison.
“Evening Jonathan,” pleasure to have you on board Phil Withall. “An interestingly balanced series, I’ll go a Queensland win on the basis that my youngest daughter has a vague connection to Robert Toia and I may have to meet him at some point.” I don’t know whether to ask more about this “vague connection” or just quietly let it pass through to the keeper.
Every year miles of column inches are spent discussing Origin lore, who wants it more, home advantage, and other intangibles. But this year it could come down to something as prosaic as goal kicking. Queensland are 6/7 off the tee in 2025, while NSW are 3/10.
Cleary’s dodgy groin has been a significant factor in this inaccuracy, but there’s no shortage of other goal kicking options. Latrell Mitchell is kicking at 85% for Souths, Steven Crichton at 84% for the Bulldogs, yet it is Zac Lomax who has been entrusted with responsibilities, despite only registering only 78% for the Eels.
Now it’s Billy Slater’s turn in front of the mic.
It’s going to take our best that’s for sure. I think both teams have been working towards a better performance, so I’m expecting something pretty special from the opposition and hopefully we can deliver as well.
On Cameron Munster leading his side following the death of his father just a few days ago.
It’s a courageous and brave effort isn’t it? And we all admire him for that. It goes to show you how much this footy team, this state means to him, and this game means to him. So I know his dad would be pretty proud of him.
Laurie Daley has given his final briefing to the host broadcaster.
I think our preparation has been first class. I can’t fault it. Boys are pretty dialled in. Obviously they know what’s at stake tonight and I reckon we’ll give our best performance of the three game series.
The plan with Payne [Haas] was always to get ready for tonight, rather than getting ready for a training session on a on a Monday or a Tuesday. So look, he’s ready to go. And Brian [To’o] probably surprised us with what he did on the on the Monday night. So no no concerns at all.
We’ve got to be very disciplined. This game is hard enough without giving away penalties, and it also rewards you if you’re strong with you discipline. So that’s what we’re aiming to do.
Where will Origin 3 be won and lost? Jack Snape has the answers.
The Blues boast two of the most devastating players in the game, Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell, and both line up in the centres. Opposite them stand two unheralded underdogs.
20-year-old Robert Toia has acquitted himself well in his first Origin series, and Gehamat Shibasaki, the 27-year-old Broncos journeyman, lines up on the other side of the field making his debut.
While Toia has not looked out of place at Origin level, the Blues now have 160 minutes of vision to target his tendencies. And as effective as he has been in the NRL this season, there is a reason Shibasaki was on a train-and-trial with the Broncos at the start of the season, having bounced around the lower grades and even Japanese rugby union.
Slater’s decision to roll with this unproven centre pairing – despite having alternatives like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Val Holmes deployed elsewhere in the backline – is more of a gamble than calling on Papalii for one or two valiant shifts in the middle. If it pays off, Queensland’s narrow path to victory remains open.
NSW will kick off.
Isaah Yeo won the toss and offered Queensland the first carry. That means Josh Papali’i could be straight back in the thick of the action on his return to the big stage.
7 – Josh Papalii is set to feature in his 7th State of #Origin Game 3 decider, joining Cameron Smith (9), Petero Civoniceva (8), Darren Lockyer (8), Mitchell Pearce (7), Allan Langer (7) & Johnathan Thurston (7) as 1 of 7 players to play at least 7 series defining games. Fate. pic.twitter.com/EJ5dqjKzEm
— OptaJason (@OptaJason) July 9, 2025
Team news.
Both teams go in as listed earlier this week.
Laurie Daley has done his utmost all series not to tinker with with his 17 and the Blues go into the decider unchanged. However, there are plenty of question marks over the fitness of the NSW squad. Nathan Cleary was clearly hampered by a groin injury in game two and he will be on only light kicking duties this evening. Halves partner Jarome Luai was in hospital late last week with an infection. Brian To’o has been troubled enough by a knee injury that Jacob Kiraz was brought into camp. And Payne Haas has been spotted wearing a back brace to stabilise his massive frame.
Billy Slater was forced into a change when Kalyn Ponga suffered a serious foot injury playing for the Knights. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifts to fullback, Valentine Holmes moves to the wing, and Gehamat Shibasaki debuts in the left centre role that has made him one of the NRL’s breakout stars this season. Elsewhere, Slater cajoled veteran Josh Papali’i out of representative retirement for one final swing with the Raider replacing Moeaki Fotuaika in the front row.
Queensland XIII
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Gehamat Shibasaki, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Cameron Munster ©, 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Josh Papali’i, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Trent Loiero.
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Patrick Carrigan.
NSW XIII
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax , 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Max King, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton , 13. Isaah Yeo (c).
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson , 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Stefano Utoikamanu.
Shout out to @randostatsguy on Twitter for these nuggets of Origin trivia.
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Nathan Cleary has done just about everything in rugby league, but he is 0/3 in Origin game 3 and 0/2 in game 3 deciders.
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Josh Papali’i by contrast is 7/8 in game 3.
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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is the first player in Origin history to be named in three different starting positions in the same series: centre > wing > fullback.
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NSW have lost four of their last five matches with Cleary & Jarome Luai lining up in the halves.
Jack Snape sets the scene for the Origin decider.
This is the first decider at Homebush since 2019, when a last-minute James Tedesco try won the shield for the Blues. But that was only the second NSW victory across five deciders at the Olympic Stadium, a record that undermines the assumed benefit of home crowd support.
So too does last year’s game three at Queensland’s Lang Park home, which was evenly poised midway through the second half before Bradman Best and Mitchell Moses scored the tries to win the shield for the travelling Blues.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of State of Origin Game 3. Kick-off in the series decider between New South Wales and Queensland at Sydney’s Accor Stadium is scheduled for 8:05pm AEST.
It all comes down to this. A peculiar, error-strewn and injury-affected Origin series will be decided this evening over 80 minutes in the heart of New South Wales. For the third time this year the Blues will run out hot favourites. For the second time in 2025 the Maroons will hope to upset the odds and celebrate Queensland’s latest shield heist.
Billy Slater’s side have only dominated around half-an-hour of the series so far, but they used that time to maximum effect. Between minutes 12 and 38 of game 2 in Perth they converted rare ascendancy into a match-winning 26 points to keep the series alive.
The Blues have been on the front foot for most of the other couple of hours of representative footy, without looking especially fluent. Even so, they ran the Maroons to within two points in Perth despite a 10-2 penalty count against them and kicking just 2/5 conversions.
The star of Queensland’s series-saving victory was Cameron Munster, who shone as his state’s captain for the first time following the axing of Daly Cherry-Evans.
And Munster has been the focus of the build-up to the decider following the news of the death of his father.
Will the Maroons rally around their skipper and produce a result for the ages? Will the Blues belatedly convert their ascendancy into a coherent 80 minute performance? One of the most dramatic nights in Australian sport awaits.
