The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.23%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.18%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.24%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.17%.
Stock indexes are trading slightly higher on reinforced confidence about US economic fundamentals after the stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%, although most of today’s other economic reports were weaker-than-expected. In any case, stocks were undercut as the odds for a Fed rate cut at the next meeting on Jan 27-28 dropped to 13% from 20%. Also, the 10-year T-note yield is slightly higher.
US Q3 real GDP rose +4.3% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +3.3% and the Q2 rate of +2.5%. The Q3 GDP Price Index rose +3.8% (q/q annualized), much stronger than expectations of +2.7% and up from Q2’s +2.1%. The Q3 core PCE Price Index rose +2.9% (q/q annualized), in line with expectations but up from Q2’s +2.6%.
The Conference Board’s Dec US consumer confidence index fell by -3.8 points to 89.1 from Nov’s revised level of 92.9 (preliminary 88.7), weaker than expectations for a report of 91.0.
The Dec Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index fell by -0.5 points to -16.8 from -16.3 in Nov, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to -15.0.
Oct durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5%. Oct durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%. Oct core capital goods orders (ex transportation and defense), a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.5% m/m, which was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.3%.
Nov US industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.1%. Nov manufacturing production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.
The Dec Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose by +8 points to -7 from Nov’s -15, and was stronger than market expectations of -10.
Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.
