The BMF title is on the line on Saturday, when Max Holloway defends against Charles Oliveira in a clash of two true legends. Holloway vs. Oliveira serves as the main event of UFC 326 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Holloway and Oliveira have already put together Hall of Fame-worthy resumes, with Holloway a former featherweight champion and Oliveira having held the lightweight championship, in addition to both men facing many of the best of their generation.
Oliveira is the UFC’s all-time leader in finishes (21), submissions (17) and post-fight bonuses (21), making him a perfect challenger for Holloway’s BMF crown.
UFC 326: How Max Holloway has continued to prove Khabib Nurmagomedov wrong: ‘I didn’t want an easy ride’
Shakiel Mahjouri
Elsewhere on Saturday, ranked middleweights collide when Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder face off in the co-main event. Borralho is coming off his first UFC defeat against Nassourdine Imavov. Before that, he ripped off seven straight UFC wins with another two on Dana White’s Contender Series. De Ridder, meanwhile, also suffered his first UFC defeat in his last outing against Brendan Allen. The former two-division ONE Championship titleholder looks to get back on track to where his four fight win streak led him.
With such a big fight anchoring a card from the world’s fight capital, there will be plenty of interest in the fights at the sportsbooks. With that in mind, we’ve once again looked at all five main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
After going 31-25 for our best bets in 2025, we are sitting at 5-5 after the first two numbered events of 2026. Now we look ahead to this weekend, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues moneyline (-185)
The first fight on the main card is interesting for a few reasons. This is a rematch of a January 2023 bout, which Ferreira won by knockout, and it came together after Paulo Costa pulled out of a planned fight with Ferreira. That first fight was Ferreira’s debut in the Octagon, and the knockout came as something of a shock. Rodrigues has gone 5-1 since the loss, with Ferreira on a 5-2 run. Rodriguez has a significant height advantage and also lands more strikes per minute, though he absorbs more strikes per minute as well. Rodrigues is probably the more well-rounded fighter, however, and can more easily pull wrestling into this fight, which shades this rematch in his direction, regardless of how the first fight played out.
Bet UFC 326 at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson
Fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ (-200)
Knockout is the most likely method of victory for both men, according to the odds. Johnson has three knockout losses in his career to four for Dober, not extremely high rates, but both men have been fairly vulnerable of late. I don’t have a ton of confidence in either man being the one to get that KO or TKO, but this does have all the makings of a fight that ends with the referee jumping in and waiving off the fight to prevent further damage. We can simply take the fight ending by KO for either man at a still fairly solid -200.
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
Rob Font moneyline (+195)
I might be overthinking this fight, but Rosas has left me feeling very underwhelmed in his two most recent wins against Aoriqileng and Vince Morales. Font is not an elite fighter, but he is a very good, very competent one. The list of men who have defeated Font mostly reads like a “who’s who” of the generation’s best 135-pounders. Still just 21 years old, it’s too early to know if Rosas fits into that group, and Font also could be well past his prime at 38. We’re now three years removed from Rosas suffering a surprising loss to Christian Rodriguez in just his second UFC fight, but Font still feels like a very live underdog in this one, and it’s fun to mix an underdog into the best bets. This whole bet rests on Font being able to keep the fight standing, however, which is risky. Rosas averages four takedowns per 15 minutes, while Font only defends takedowns at a 43% clip. Still, the veteran has the tools to take it to the youngster in ways none of Rosas’ previous opponents could.
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
Borralho to win by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (-225)
Were both men coming off victories, this fight would be something akin to a title eliminator. Instead, de Ridder followed his win over Robert Whittaker with a loss to Brendan Allen, while Borralho lost to Nassourdine Imavov after defeating Jared Cannonier. Prior to those defeats, both men were undefeated in the Octagon. Looking at those fights, de Ridder’s game is the one that causes me the most concern. He faded badly against Allen, and his stand-up is not great, even if he was able to finish off Bo Nickal with some impressive knees. Borralho is better on the feet and is also a solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt who shouldn’t be overwhelmed by de Ridder if the fight hits the ground. Borralho’s advantage on the feet should be enough to shade the fight in his direction, whether that means a knockout or winning a decision.
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
Max Holloway moneyline (-220)
I can’t remember the last time I picked against Oliveira, but stylistically, this is a very good fight for Holloway. Oliveira’s combination of very good striking and elite submission skills makes him a tough out for anyone, but Holloway’s boxing is next level, and he successfully defends 83% of takedowns. Oliveira doesn’t have the same level of hands as Holloway, and he will have to close distance past those punches if he wants to try and drag the fight to the ground. It’s certainly possible for Oliveira to get the job done, but it’s a mighty big ask against a fighter who is very much built to nullify the Brazilian’s game. Over 2.5 rounds is tempting at -175, but a quick finish is very much in play for both of these men, so we’ll stick with the fighter more built to win this specific fight.
Who wins Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
