Bullet 1 — The Stocks: CrowdStrike (CRWD) is up 22% from February lows and trading 24% below recent highs as cybersecurity becomes an essential defense against advanced AI threats.
Bullet 2 — The Story: Agentic AI tools like Claude Code are lowering software development barriers to entry, triggering a broader SaaS reckoning, but cybersecurity firms benefit as AI-powered threats from models like Claude Mythos require increasingly sophisticated defenses.
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The software-as-a-service (SaaS) sell-off or SaaS-pocalypse, as it’s commonly referred to, has been a major story this year. Even as investors become more comfortable with taking on risk after the latest drop in oil prices and a de-escalation in the Middle East, the SaaS stocks might not be able to participate in the market-wide bounce-back. In fact, on Wednesday’s session, several SaaS plays sank to new 52-week lows.
Of course, AI is a real threat to a lot of software business models, but, in prior piece, I highlighted that it was wrong for the market to punish some names, from the cybersecurity plays like CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) to the AI infrastructure companies like Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) and even the credit-rating plays like Moody’s (NYSE:MCO). Just because there’s software involved doesn’t mean a firm is on its way out, as agentic AI has arrived, eager to disrupt across all corners of the market.
That’s not to say that much of SaaS won’t be at risk of further downside. Some of the SaaS names deserve to take a hit on the chin. And the big drops of 50% or more might actually be the start of a steeper crash, even as some SaaS firms don’t hesitate to repurchase their own shares. Buybacks, especially on dips, can signal confidence, but in the face of profound technological disruptors, I do think it’s very risky to follow the buybacks, especially if a firm’s model is at risk in the hands of a new AI tool.
READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks
To put it simply, agentic AI and tools like Claude Code have lowered the barriers to entry in software development. And, believe it not, the barriers could fall much further, especially as the AI titans narrow their focus from broad benchmarks to coding.
Indeed, if you can score the best coding score, the other metrics may not matter as much as AI firms look to race towards recursive self-improvement, a concept that sees AI updating itself. Whether escape velocity can be reached, though, remains the big question. Any way you look at it, the clock is ticking for the SaaS firms that aren’t well-equipped to navigate what’s sure to be a painful transition.
