In December 2025, Ecuador’s National Assembly approved the government’s 2026 budget proposal, with 78 votes in favour, 66 against, and four abstentions. The budget focuses on social programmes, security, and infrastructure development, with total budget spending set at $46.3bn, equivalent to 33.27% of GDP, which represents a 13% increase compared to the 2025 budget spending. It is based on projected real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP estimated at $139.1bn. The macroeconomic framework estimates oil production of 165.5m barrels in 2026, with an average oil price of $53.5 per barrel, significantly below levels seen in previous years. Based on these assumptions, total revenue is estimated at $46.3bn, comprising $21.7bn in current revenues, $8.5bn in capital revenues, and $16.1bn in financing.
On the expenditure side, $23.5bn is allocated to current spending, including wages and public services, while $1.8bn is earmarked for public investment and $10.5bn for capital expenditures. The budget projects an overall deficit of $5.4bn, reflecting a $1.8bn gap between permanent revenues and expenditures and a $3.6bn deficit in non-permanent accounts. To meet fiscal obligations and refinance debt, the budget includes a financing requirement of $10.5bn, most of which—$8.4bn—is earmarked for debt amortisation.
Despite limited fiscal space, the budget continues to prioritise social support and funding for local governments. Spending on transfers and subsidies will total $6.3bn, including $1.8bn for social assistance programs such as the Human Development Bond and transport subsidies, and $3.9bn to support social security systems for civilians, police, and the armed forces.
Public investment under the Annual Investment Plan will amount to $2.2bn across 388 projects, mainly focused on energy, social development, security, and public administration. In addition, transfers to local governments will reach $4.1bn, while mandatory funding for education and health is set to increase by $695m each.
Overall, Ecuador’s 2026 budget is likely to have a mixed impact on the construction industry. While planned capital spending, public investment programs, and transfers to local governments will help sustain activity in infrastructure, public buildings, and energy-related projects, tight fiscal conditions and a sizable deficit may constrain the scale and timing of project execution. As a result, the construction industry growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate, with opportunities mainly concentrated in government-backed projects rather than large, privately financed developments.
