Tom Oldfield
• Betting Analyst
22+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 15, 2026 , 08:13 PM ET
• 4 min read
New Zealand are struggling, and Iran will take advantage en route to an easy win.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Iran’s Mehdi Taremi scores a penalty.
Iran finally get to shift the focus back to football tonight as they open their World Cup against New Zealand with a real chance to take control of their knockout-stage path.
Both teams handled qualification comfortably, but my Iran vs. New Zealand predictions put more weight on Iran’s experience against stronger opposition than New Zealand’s softer road to the tournament.
Read on for my free World Cup picks ahead of this Monday, June 15 battle.
TOP PICK
Who will win Iran vs New Zealand: Iran (-120)
This summer is a golden opportunity for Iran to progress beyond the group stage for the first time, but a winning start here against New Zealand, Group G’s weakest squad, is critical to that dream.
The Iranians arrive in encouraging form – they lost just once in 16 Asian qualification games and thumped Costa Rica 5-0 earlier this year – and they’re clear favorites on Monday. Even so, I like this price for Amir Ghalenoei’s men, and it’s playable up to -140.
New Zealand’s World Cup warm-up games told us plenty about their limitations, especially a demoralizing 4-0 rout at the hands of Haiti. Facing so few stern tests in qualifying really hurts the Kiwis, leaving them to rely on the steady low block that frustrated England at times last weekend but left New Zealand with just 28% possession.
Look for a stingy Iran defense to shut down Kiwi striker Chris Wood, paving the way for a talented attack to create chances for frontman Mehdi Taremi, and the Iranians’ experience at the past three World Cups provides another big edge in this matchup.
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Iran vs New Zealand Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 (+137)
This Iranian attack poses a real threat in the final third, scoring 2+ goals in eight of its last 11 games, including a 2-0 win over Mali earlier this month, and I’ll take the Over at plus money on Monday night.
Make no mistake, Iran will have to do the heavy lifting, but this first outing plays to their strengths. New Zealand’s back line lacks experience at this level, and they’ll be tested early and often, particularly by penalty box poacher Mehdi Taremi and a bustling Iran midfield.
The ease with which Haiti – currently two places above the Kiwis in the FIFA rankings – steamrolled Darren Bazeley’s squad last Saturday also points me to the Over. If Iran grab an early lead, the floodgates could open.
While New Zealand will gladly defend in numbers on Monday, it’s worth noting that they racked up 29 goals during their five qualifying contests. Yes, the opposition included minnows like Tahiti and New Caledonia, but Wood brings Premier League-caliber finishing.
Iran vs New Zealand goal scorer
Mehdi Taremi (+163)
Taremi is the obvious pick, having netted 10 goals during Iran’s qualifying run. He looked sharp at Olympiacos this season on his way to a double-digit goal tally, and he gives the Iranian wingers a proven aerial target for crosses.
New Zealand have some inexperienced center-backs in their squad, including Finn Surman and Tyler Bindon, who won’t be used to dealing with strikers of this quality, and you can be sure that Taremi will be trying to isolate them in one-on-one matchups.
With the Kiwis sitting back and inviting Iran attacks, Taremi is good value to take one of the chances that come his way.
Iran vs New Zealand confirmed starting lineup
Iran (4-4-2): Beiranvand; Rezaeian, Nemati, Khalilzadeh, Mohammadi; Yousefi, Ghoddos, Ezatolahi, Mohebi; Moghanlou, Taremi
New Zealand (4-2-3-1): Crocombe; Payne, Surman, Boxall, Cacace; Stamenic, Bell; Just, Singh, McCowatt; Wood
Iran vs New Zealand injuries
Iran: Alireza Jahanbakhsh RW (Questionable), Dennis Eckert FW (Questionable), Mehdi Torabi LW (Questionable), Roozbeh Cheshmi DM (Questionable).
New Zealand: Ryan Thomas CM (Doubtful)
Iran vs New Zealand weather
Weather will not be a factor as this game is being played inside a dome.
Iran vs New Zealand odds
| Iran | New Zealand | |
|---|---|---|
| -120 | Moneyline | +359 |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 (+137) | Total | Under 2.5 (-182) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Iran vs New Zealand
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Monday, June 15, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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