Where Will Micron Stock Be in 2030?

What the cycle says about 2030

Zoom out, however, and memory’s history argues for caution. In fiscal 2023, an oversupplied market roughly halved Micron’s revenue to $15.5 billion, and the company lost $5.8 billion. That was three years ago — same company, same industry. After all, booms in this business have always financed the supply that eventually ends them, and prices like today’s are an open invitation for rivals to add capacity.

So build the range from both truths.

If contracted pricing holds and AI demand keeps absorbing supply into the decade, earnings power in the $120-per-share range could persist or even grow. Give that a multiple of 10 to 12 (arguably modest for a business this profitable), and the stock sits somewhere around $1,200 to $1,500 by 2030.

If the cycle turns the way it always has historically, however, the math changes completely. Suppose earnings settle toward a mid-cycle level — call it $40 to $60 per share, somewhere between fiscal 2025’s $7.59 and today’s triple digits. At 10 to 12 times, that’s a stock somewhere between $400 and $700.

Split the difference, and the expected range is about $800 to $1,100, close to where the stock already trades. The midpoint of this range implies only modest returns from Thursday’s $874.66. The market, it seems, has priced the middle path: several more boom quarters, then a slide toward normal.

That framing shapes what I’d do. I’d consider owning Micron here, but only modestly. The contracts and the product lineup make this boom sturdier than the last one, and 7 times guided earnings is not a price that requires perfection.

But memory has never gone in one direction for long, and I don’t expect 2030 to arrive without another turn of the cycle. My base case is that the stock lands in the $800 to $1,100 range by then, with plenty of room to be wrong in either direction. If the fiscal fourth-quarter report (likely this fall) shows the supply agreements holding prices the way management promises, the higher end gets more believable.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Where Will Micron Stock Be in 2030? was originally published by The Motley Fool