Florida’s anticipated error rate in the federal food security program called SNAP appears to be on the rise — a move that could wind up helping the state avoid costly penalties in the short run.
After dipping to 12.97% for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2025, the unofficial payment error rate for FFY 2026 is an average 14.49%. (Federal fiscal years open each Oct. 1.)
That’s higher than the anticipated national error rate of 10.62%, also based on data through March, a Department of Children and Families, the Sept. 1, 2026, report shows.
The report does not contain error rates by county. But it does highlight error rates by region. Northeast Florida had the highest error rates (19.3%), followed by southern Florida (18.81%) and southeast Florida (16.47%).
Payment error rates measure the accuracy of each state’s eligibility and benefit determinations in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Errors are unintentional mistakes and are not considered fraud.
High error rates don’t bode well for people who rely on the food security program, or for the federal government that until now has footed the entire costs of the program.
But it could be good financial news for Florida, which may avoid having to pay a $1 billion penalty if it wants to continue to participate.
Enrollment in SNAP has dipped by double digits over the last year — 2,285,099 residents enrolled in the program in June, down from 2,970,283 in June 2025, data maintained by the DCF shows.
That’s about a 23% reduction.
SNAP provides nutritional support for low-income seniors, people with disabilities living on fixed incomes, and other individuals and families with low incomes. Although funded by the federal government, SNAP in Florida is administered by DCF’s Office of Economic Self-Sufficiency, which is responsible for determining eligibility.
Before the One Big Beautiful Bill Act became law, SNAP benefits were funded entirely by the federal government. The new law slashes $186 billion in funding and for the first time puts cost-sharing requirements on states beginning in FFY 2028.
States with payment error rates of 6% or higher are required to contribute to the costs of food as follows:
- 5% of the cost of benefits for error rates above 6%.
- 10% of the cost of benefits for payment rates between 8% and 10%.
- 15%, of the costs of benefits for error rates above 10%.
On the other hand …
But the federal law delays the cost-sharing requirements for states with comparatively high payment error rates compared to the rest of the nation.
For instance, states with payment errors of 13.33% or more in FFY 2025 aren’t required to contribute to the costs of the program until FFY 2029.
Florida’s payment error rate had been 12.97% and the state didn’t qualify for that one-year delay. Based on the cost-sharing calculations, Florida faced a $1 billion tab beginning Oct. 1, 2027.
However, the law gives states a second chance to delay the cost-sharing requirements by allowing them to use either their FFY 2025 or FFY 2026 error rates.
Florida economists agree that the unofficial 2026 error through March rate is high enough, according to the report, to push cost sharing requirements back another three years.
“If Florida’s final FFY 2026 (payment error rate) is at least 13.33 percent, implementation of the state cost-sharing requirement would be delayed until FFY 2030,” the Long Term Financial Outlook notes.
Economists annually prepare a snapshot of the state’s budget situation for the next three years. The outlook, required by the Florida Constitution, is meant to put legislators and other state officials on notice about whether a budget surplus or deficit looms.
