Kimi Antonelli has remained at the top of the drivers’ standings since Round 3 of the campaign in Japan – and his hold on the P1 slot was strengthened following his victory last time out at the Spanish Grand Prix.
The Italian is now 81 points clear of closest challenger George Russell following the 14th event of the season, while third-placed Lewis Hamilton is now 101 points adrift.
Antonelli has insisted that thinking about the title is “exactly what I don’t want to do”, but our data team have done the maths to figure out how soon the Mercedes driver could potentially win a maiden World Championship…
How many points are still up for grabs?
Nine rounds remain in the 2026 season, with one of these – Singapore – being a Sprint weekend.
This means that the maximum points score still available is 233, which would be achieved by a driver winning every Grand Prix as well as the Sprint.
Which drivers are still in contention for the title?
Mathematically, eight drivers besides Antonelli are still in contention for the championship – that being Russell, Hamilton, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri, Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson.
However, the realistic likelihood of those at the lower end of the order taking the title is slim, with their chances of winning based on the possibility of Antonelli failing to score any more points and no other driver exceeding the Italian’s current total of 292 points.
In this scenario, the earliest that Russell could take the crown would be Sao Paulo, while for Hamilton, Norris and Leclerc it would be Las Vegas. Verstappen and Piastri, meanwhile, would have to wait until Qatar.
When is the earliest that Antonelli could claim the World Championship?
That would be Round 17 in Singapore. For this to happen, Antonelli would need to win the Azerbaijan and Bahrain Grands Prix before also taking victory in both the Grand Prix and Sprint at the Marina Bay Street Circuit, while Russell would have to come away with no points from all of these events.
Such a scenario would give Antonelli an unbeatable total of 375 points, putting the gap between himself and Russell at 164 points – and with a maximum of 150 points available after Singapore, this would mean that the Briton could not beat his team mate.
If that doesn’t happen, what other scenarios would see Antonelli become World Champion?
Well, our data team calculated what would happen if Antonelli and Russell both continued to end each round in their median finish positions from the season so far. Antonelli’s average result in 2026 is currently P1, while Russell’s stands at 3.5.
Based on this prediction, the earliest that Antonelli could win the World Championship would be Round 19 in Mexico, where he would build an advantage of 112 points – a gap that Russell could not mathematically close before the end of the campaign.
