The Week 7 schedule features six top-25 matchups, giving contenders ample opportunity to strengthen their playoff cases before next month’s first selection committee rankings. Nearing the midway point, preseason expectations now carry little weight — ask teams like LSU, Texas &M, Michigan and Penn State — with narratives already materializing.
We’re picking several of Saturday’s showdowns that come with playoff implications, raising the stakes for teams in the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 trying to protect unbeaten records. Ohio State-Indiana, Notre Dame-BYU, Alabama-Tennessee — good luck finding a quiet window on this slate.
Season results: Brad Crawford (38-13 straight up, 29-21-1 ATS); Chris Hummer (40-11 straight up, 27–23-1 ATS)
We’re coming off my personal worst picks week of my career straight up (3-5, yuck!) after a bevy of upsets I didn’t see coming. The against-the-spread total wasn’t fatal, at least. Hummer has narrowed the gap to two games back ATS and has assumed the lead straight up after a terrific showing. If these picks aren’t enough this week, head to our CBS Sports expert picks page where Hummer’s on a heater.
No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU (-10.5)
Hummer (LSU -10.5): This game sets up for a LSU bounce back. Even if Kamario Taylor were healthy — and his status is in doubt this week — the Tigers have a lot of advantages in this game, including an elite secondary and pass rush. The big question for LSU is whether Sam Leavitt can avoid turnovers. If he plays clean, which has been a problem all year given that he leads the nation in INTs, LSU should roll. … LSU 38, Mississippi State 24.
Crawford (LSU -10.5): Is this the week LSU finally puts it together against an opponent of substance? It is time the Tigers look the part as a potential CFP team after two SEC losses already. A third ends any hope of getting to the 12-team bracket, even if LSU wins out from there and finishes 9-3. The resume simply won’t be good enough to warrant enough attention. I’m giving this the must-win label for Lane Kiffin, whose first season is teetering on total disappointment if he’s handed a third loss before playing Alabama in November. … LSU 37, Mississippi State 20.
Florida at No. 7 Texas (-9.5)
Hummer (Florida +9.5): Which version of Arch Manning and the Texas passing attack are we going to get? That’s going to determine whether Texas rolls in this game. The Gators have the worst pass defense in the SEC and have been torched by far less talented (on paper) passing attacks than Texas. But Texas has been incredibly inconsistent on offense this year, ranking just 62nd nationally in passing yards per game. Texas, a top-15 rushing defense, is set up to contain Jadan Baugh and Florida’s rushing attack. But can it score enough to cover in this one? I’m extremely skeptical. Perhaps Texas responds and blows Florida out — a real possibility — but that’s just not the team we’ve seen this year. … Texas 31, Florida 24.
Crawford (Texas -9.5): I’m not positive on this, but the public play will assuredly be Florida, given the potential hangover effect from the Longhorns’ loss to Oklahoma. The Gators stink worse, though, with consecutive blowout losses in SEC play since starting the season 4-0 and ranked No. 8. Florida’s secondary looks atrocious after being carved up by LaNorris Sellers last week and Arch Manning could do the same. Manning has been off more than sharp this fall, but this is a matchup I like for the Texas offense. The Longhorns lost to Florida last season, and that could play a role in Saturday’s performance, too. … Texas 34, Florida 24.
No. 6 Alabama (-6.5) at No. 14 Tennessee
Hummer (Alabama -6.5): The Vols have survived this year behind an elite defense. That unit has carried an offense that ranks just 66th nationally in yards per play and 110th in passing yards per game. But is that defense good enough to hold off Alabama? I’m highly skeptical. Alabama’s defense has been susceptible in the secondary this year. But the Vols don’t have the passing offense to take advantage of that. The Crimson Tide roll in this game for a second straight year. … Alabama 24, Tennessee 17.
Crawford (Alabama -6.5): It almost feels disrespectful to call this a “get-right” game for the Crimson Tide given their recent struggles at Neyland Stadium, but unless DeSean Bishop controls this game on the ground for the Vols, I don’t see a path to a Tennessee victory. The passing game is a struggle for Josh Heupel, and Alabama can score points in a hurry. Falling behind in the first half could lead to a chorus of boos in Knoxville if the Crimson Tide’s defense can put together stops. This is a dangerous game for Tennessee, not so much the betting favorites even without Ryan Coleman-Williams on the outside. … Alabama 30, Tennessee 17.
No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss (-6.5)
Hummer (Missouri +6.5): Ole Miss should have a detailed scouting report on Austin Simmons in this one given that Pete Golding faced him every day for years at Ole Miss. This game will tell us a lot about whether the Rebels’ secondary is really any better after their blowout loss to Florida. Missouri is an excellent team. The Tigers are stout up front defensively and have a passing attack that can expose Ole Miss’ defense. This game has a ton of star power crossover — Kewan Lacy went from Missouri to Ole Miss, Simmons from Oxford to Columbia — and I think it is close throughout. … Ole Miss 31, Missouri 28.
Crawford (Missouri +6.5): Is there anyone out there who saw this being a top-15 matchup a month ago? The Tigers’ run without Ahmad Hardy has really been impressive. Jamal Roberts has back-to-back 200-yard outings on the ground and could easily have a third against a defense that’s had its issues this season. I like Missouri in this spot with the points. I’m still not sure what to make of the Rebels outside of Trinidad Chambliss. You know what you’re getting out of him, but Kewan Lacy is banged up and play on the other side of the football has left much to be desired. … Ole Miss 30, Missouri 24.
No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston (-3.5)
Hummer (Oklahoma State +3.5): The Cowboys have gotten better every week this season to the point where, with their offense, you can really start to imagine them as an immediate Big 12 title threat. But this is by far their in Big 12 play. Houston is among the nation’s best rushing attacks, and Oklahoma State is among the least successful run defenses in the country on a down-to-down basis. Houston plays more zone coverage than any other Big 12 team to prevent big plays.
Houston’s secondary hasn’t succeeded in that area, given the Cougars’ rank of 126th nationally in passes allowed of 20-plus yards. This game will come down to two areas: 1. Can Houston control the clock and convert in the red zone? 2. Can Oklahoma State create chunk plays in the passing game? I’m not willing to pick the outright upset here, but I think the Cowboys are in position to have a lot of offensive success in this one. … Houston 31, Oklahoma State 28.
Crawford (Oklahoma State +3.5): Oklahoma State’s path to an upset starts with explosive plays while trying to keep Conner Weigman contained on the other side of the football. The Cowboys don’t need to dominate every snap if they’re turning opportunities into chunk plays and touchdowns. Force Houston to chase points, and suddenly the pressure shifts to the favorite at home in front of what Willie Fritz hopes will be a sellout crowd. This is a matchup with significant Big 12 title game implications, especially since the Cougars already have a loss in conference play at Texas Tech. … Oklahoma State 34, Houston 31.
Penn State at Michigan (-5.5)
Hummer (Michigan -5.5): The losing coach in this one is going to be feeling very uncomfortable. If Penn State falls, it’ll be four straight dropped games. If Michigan loses, the Wolverines will have lost three in a row and will be out of the playoff hunt before the calendar turns to November. Michigan will have to run to win in this one. The Nittany Lions have an excellent secondary and, to be kind, Michigan’s passing attack has been far from a strength. The good news for the Wolverines is that the Nittany Lions rank 113th nationally in yards allowed per carry. Coming out of a bye — and given Penn State’s struggles to run the football — I like the Wolverines to cover. … Michigan 27, Penn State 21.
Crawford (Penn State +5.5): Neither of these teams has won a game in the Big Ten, and it’s mid-October. That’s unacceptable for two first-year staffs at these respective blueblood programs. Michigan’s decision to stick with Bryce Underwood at quarterback and Jason Beck as the offensive playcaller speaks to Kyle Whittingham’s confidence in his personnel, but the turnaround needs to happen now. Rocco Becht does enough for the Nittany Lions to cover here, but the Wolverines get a late stop to win. … Michigan 24, Penn State 20.
No. 2 Notre Dame (-11.5) at No. 8 BYU
Hummer (BYU +11.5): Were BYU healthy, this would be a clear cover situation. The Cougars are a legitimately excellent team with excellent offensive line play, a defense with draft picks all over and an offense with a clear run-first identity. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they’re missing their best offensive weapon in running back LJ Martin, who is going to miss the game with an injury.
And if last week’s game with Iowa State is any indication, the Cougars don’t really have anyone to replace him — no BYU back had more than 21 yards in that game. Maybe Bear Bachmeier steps up and has a career day as both a passer and runner — he’s one of the best rushing threats at QB in the country — but I think it could be a long day for BYU against an elite Irish that ranks fourth nationally in yards allowed per play. Still, BYU keeps it competitive enough to cover. … Notre Dame 31, BYU 20.
Crawford (Notre Dame -11.5): I’d be worried here if I was a Cougars fan. LJ Martin isn’t available in the backfield and this is Notre Dame’s first opportunity this season to flex its full arsenal against a nationally-ranked opponent. The setup is similar for BYU, but an offense that doesn’t produce explosive plays and is averaging only 23 points per game against Power Four opponents this season raises questions. The Fighting Irish cover, and it may not be competitive after halftime. … Notre Dame 31, BYU 14.
Florida State at No. 3 Miami (-21.5)
Hummer (Florida State +21.5): This could get ugly. I say that with the caveat that Florida State is better than people think. The Seminoles have been solidly effective on offense, and they’ve been competitive against everyone they’ve played. But Miami is a buzzsaw on offense, and I feel very confident in saying Mario Cristobal will provide no quarter in this one if the game gets out of hand. Florida State will have to control the game on the ground, make Miami drive and avoid turnovers to keep this game close. … Miami 42, Florida State 21.
Crawford (Miami -21.5): Leadership uncertainty and Mike Norvell’s massive buyout, for now, are what’s keeping him employed with the Seminoles. After losing a two-touchdown lead and giving up 400-plus yards rushing at Louisville last week, this is nearing rock bottom for the man in charge. It’s unfortunate this rival is capable of making things look even worse for Florida State’s current regime if the Hurricanes so choose this weekend. There’s always the element of surprise in a matchup of two teams not fond of each other, but I’ve seen enough of this Florida State defense to know Miami should be able to do whatever it wants offensively in this one. … Miami 44, Florida State 20.
No. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma (-6.5)
Hummer (Kentucky +6.5): I understand Oklahoma being favored at home. But by a full touchdown? Not with the way the Sooners’ offense, which ranks 118th nationally in yards per play, is playing. This game is strength-on-strength, with Kentucky’s o-line and rushing attack against Oklahoma’s dominant front seven on defense. Expect points to be reasonably scarce in this one unless the secondaries bust or if the QBs create on their own with their legs. I like Oklahoma to win straight up. But Will Stein and Joe Sloan’s creativity as offensive schemers give the Wildcats a chance. … Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 20.
Crawford (Oklahoma -6.5): The Wildcats moved into my CFP projection for the first time this season after Saturday night’s thrilling win over LSU, but this is a tough spot on the road against a defensive-minded squad coming off its best performance of the season. It’s hard betting against Will Stein and the belief inside that locker room right now that the Wildcats can play with anyone, but doing it on the road against Brent Venables feels different. All goals are still very much in play for Kentucky even with a loss in Norman, by the way. The Wildcats have already played Alabama and miss Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss down the stretch. … Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 14.
Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA (-3.5)
Hummer (Wisconsin +3.5): Given the way these two offenses are playing, especially with Nico Iamaleava out for UCLA, this could be a bit of a rock fight. UCLA needs to run the ball to win. But the Badgers have a top-25 run defense. Wisconsin needs to run the ball to win. But UCLA has a top-10 run defense. This is the type of game that will come down to turnovers. Nobody’s forced more of them this year than UCLA. Wisconsin is coughing up the ball about once per game. Coming off a bye week, I believe the Badgers will play clean. … Wisconsin 20, UCLA 17.
Crawford (Wisconsin +3.5): Since opening the season with a loss to Notre Dame, the Badgers have found their groove with four straight wins. This team looks vastly improved in a tenure-defining campaign for Luke Fickell, who received support from his administration amid job-security questions late last fall. UCLA is one of nine remaining unbeatens in the FBS, but now they move forward without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is feared out for the remainder of the year after a knee injury suffered at Oregon. That’s a problem for the Bruins, despite their run-based scheme. … UCLA 23, Wisconsin 20.
No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 5 Indiana
Hummer (Indiana +3.5): This game should tell us a lot about this pair of national title contenders. Ohio State hasn’t really been tested since blowing a 20-point lead against Texas. Indiana, for its part, is showing some cracks after looking unbeatable last year. The Buckeyes have to prove they can run the ball (they rank 128th nationally in yards created before contact) and consistently generate pressure. Indiana needs a top corner to emerge as a threat to Jeremiah Smith and Josh Hoover to play clean. Maybe this is the week the Buckeyes’ questions up front catch up to them. But I’ve thought the Buckeyes were the best team in the Big Ten all year, and I’ll stick with that pick. But I’m happy to take the points on the spread. … Ohio State 24, Indiana 21.
Crawford (Ohio State -3.5): College football‘s longest winning streak is coming to an end this weekend in Bloomington, at the hands of the program that currently holds the Big Ten’s highest mark. Limit possessions and force turnovers: that’s the game plan for this Indiana defense. I’m expecting this matchup to look a lot like last season’s Big Ten Championship Game, but if Jeremiah Smith goes for another 100-yard outing and reaches the end zone this time around, the Buckeyes win the rematch. On the other hand t’ll be interesting to see how many AP voters give Indiana No. 1 love in the Week 8 rankings if the Hoosiers do come out victorious. … Ohio State 27, Indiana 20.
