Analysts at BNP Paribas have been pretty steady on Tesla, making the Wall Street firm one of the few with a bearish outlook on the stock.
BNP Paribas has an underperform rating and a $280 price target on the stock (compared to the consensus hold rating and $397.26 price target, according to MarketBeat), based on skepticism about the company’s Robotaxi and Optimus-focused plans for 2026.
BNPP analysts are very skeptical of the progress, or lack thereof, that Tesla is showing in Robotaxi and humanoid robots. According to the firm, Tesla’s Robotaxi growth in Austin and San Francisco has “stagnated,” and it seems skeptical of the company’s expansion into Dallas and Houston, referring to its “launches” with quotation marks.
Analysts said Tesla will also “require a steep ramp” to reach the 7-city expansion by the end of the year, which CEO Elon Musk promised investors during the company’s previous earnings call.
“We also don’t see much progress in Optimus commercialization,” analysts said, referring to Musk’s other promise of expanding the company’s capacity to build 1 million Optimus humanoid robots per year.
“Given Tesla’s sizable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the ‘stakes’ of TSLA’s demonstrated Robotaxi and Optimus progress could not be higher,” analysts said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, analysts at the firm are bullish on domestic Tesla EV rival Rivian, despite the fact that the company lags far behind Tesla. BNPP’s goals for Rivian by the end of the year are milestones Tesla has already mastered.
Elon Musk has promised investors that Tesla will more than triple its Robotaxi coverage and usher in the humanoid robot revolution by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Rivian’s goals this year seem much more attainable, so analysts at BNP Paribas are more bullish on the struggling startup EV maker.
Rivian has a $23 price target on its shares, 26% above the stock’s closing price of $16.92 on Monday, April 20.
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The firm says that while it expects better deliveries, “Rivian’s 2026 will be defined by… the Co.’s ability to offer FSD-like ‘point-to-point’ hands-free driving by year end.”
In the meantime, it says the recent $1.25 billion expanded Robotaxi partnership with Uber is enough to push the firm’s expectations for Rivian’s stock to $4 per share.
