BHP has increased its total investment estimate for stage two of the Jansen potash project in Canada from $4.9bn (A$6.98bn) to $6.9bn following a detailed review of cost and schedule forecasts.
The company expects first production from this stage to commence late in financial year 2031 (FY31), two years later than previously planned.
Approval for Jansen stage two was granted in October 2023, with BHP initially assigning an investment cost estimate of $4.9bn.
In August 2025, BHP announced a two-year extension to the project’s timeline, moving the expected production start to FY31.
The company confirmed its intention to provide an updated capital expenditure (capex) estimate in the second half of FY26.
The revised investment figure follows a comprehensive review undertaken during the extension, which considered project delivery, costs and schedule.
BHP attributed most of the increase to additional construction hours, higher material quantities and cost escalation identified during the process.
At the end of May 2026, Jansen stage two was reported to be 16% complete, with engineering progress at 83%. BHP stated that this has reduced risk for the remaining work.
BHP continues to forecast Jansen stage two output at approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum (mtpa).
With a planned two-year ramp-up, the company expects combined Jansen production to reach 8.5mtpa, representing around 10% of global potash output.
At consensus potash prices, the updated internal rate of return for Jansen stage two is 11%, with an expected payback period of eight years.
The company reported that underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margins are expected to remain above 65%.
BHP said that once stage two has reached full ramp-up, the combined Jansen mine is set to be the lowest-unit-cost Canadian potash mine at $114–130/t, the same range as estimated at the time of project approval.
In light of higher projected capital intensity for Jansen, BHP said it currently expects to recognise an impairment charge of roughly $2.3bn before and after tax in its financial results for 2026, relating to its investment in the project to date.
Jansen stage one remains on track for first production by mid-calendar year 2027, in line with the updated cost and schedule set in January 2026.
BHP does not expect to change its group capex guidance for FY27, which remains at approximately $11bn.
BHP Americas president and CEO-elect Brandon Craig said: “BHP continues to invest in its long-term growth strategy. Jansen is an important pillar of BHP’s strategy and will deliver exposure to a future-facing commodity with strong demand fundamentals and portfolio diversification benefits.”
