Gold at $4,000, silver below $60 — is precious metal rally over?

Gold and silver prices are oscillating around key thresholds as hawkish central banks and inflation fears weigh on the metals — and market watchers see little chance of a meaningful rebound in the near term.

Spot gold was flat at around 5:50 a.m. ET on Thursday, trading at $3,990.17 an ounce after falling below the $4,000 mark in the previous session. The precious yellow metal briefly broke back above $4,000 on Thursday, before retreating again later in the morning. Front-month U.S. gold futures were marginally lower, settling at $4,006.60. Year-to-date, gold is now down by around 7.5%.

Silver prices are also coming under pressure. Spot silver was 0.1% higher at $57.49 an ounce on Thursday morning, rebounding from a loss seen earlier in the day. Silver futures for July delivery were down by 1.2% at $57.41. Spot silver has lost almost 20% of its value since the beginning of the year.

Both gold and silver enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135% respectively over the course of the year.

While the rally continued into early 2026, trade soon turned volatile. Silver futures suffered their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January and gold’s safe haven status has been called into question after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February.

In a note on Wednesday, strategists at Macquarie said all eyes were now on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks — particularly the Federal Reserve — will tighten policy to keep prices under control.

“The apparent end to the conflict in the Middle East, combined with a more hawkish Fed, has caused prices to retreat as gold’s safe haven appeal fades together with the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger USD, with a Fed rate hike in Q4 now fully priced in,” they said.

Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate hike by September, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this month in response to the Iran war energy shock.

Macquarie’s said that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting had taken a “hawkish tone” and that, under his leadership, the central bank has “potential to derail or support prices” in the gold market.

“Post the fallout from the Middle East, which we expect to weigh on global growth into Q3, the eventual upturn in global growth and monetary policy easing cycle should see gold prices trend lower as more investor money transitions out of precious metals,” they said.

“Investors have been taking profit and pivoting towards equities … This creates space for investors to re-enter the precious space, thereby pushing prices back up, but it…