NJBIZ Looking Ahead 2026: Leaders on market drivers

As part of the NJBIZ Looking Ahead 2026 special feature, we asked industry leaders across New Jersey: What do you think will be the most important factors driving the market in your industry? Read the Letter from the Editor and other Q-and-A’s here.

Cannabis

Sam Brill
CEO, Ascend Wellness Holdings

Consumers are becoming more discerning, and they are looking for brands that consistently represent their values. It is not enough to simply have products on a shelf. They want quality, transparency and to engage with the lifestyle that brands represent. That is why programs like Ascenders Club are so important. They reward loyalty, deepen engagement and help us better understand our customers over time.

Natalie Diaz
Associate, Cannabis, Hemp and Psychedelics, Mandelbaum Barrett

The most important factors that will drive the cannabis industry in 2026 are federal rescheduling and the intoxicating hemp ban expected by November 2026, because both directly affect who can participate in the market and how consumers access cannabis. Federal rescheduling from Schedule I to Schedule III is significant because it could ease tax burdens and provide greater regulatory clarity, while also opening the door for certain cannabis products to be approved through the FDA [U.S. Food and Drug Administration] and potentially covered by private insurance, Medicaid or Medicare. However, this pathway is likely to favor large, well-capitalized companies that can afford clinical trials and compliance costs, making it harder for smaller, independent operators to compete. At the same time, the phased ban on intoxicating hemp at both the federal and New Jersey levels matters because it is expected to eliminate a major source of unregulated competition from gas stations, smoke shops and convenience stores selling hemp-derived THC products. This shift could push more consumers toward licensed dispensaries and strengthen the regulated market, while also creating uncertainty for ethical smoke shop owners and local hemp farmers who are organizing to protect their livelihoods.

Scott Prisco
CEO, Priscotty

One of the most important factors driving growth in the cannabis industry in 2026 will be federal rescheduling, assuming it moves forward. Rescheduling would have significant downstream effects across the entire ecosystem — including improved access to capital, healthier balance sheets for operators and greater institutional participation. As cannabis businesses become financially stronger, service providers and infrastructure partners also benefit, creating a more stable and sustainable supply chain overall. Beyond capital access, rescheduling would reduce regulatory friction and uncertainty, allowing operators to focus more on execution, efficiency, and long-term growth rather than short-term survival. That shift has a compounding effect: stronger operators lead to more reliable partnerships, better consumer experiences, and increased investment across logistics, technology and delivery. In short, rescheduling has the potential to reset the industry on healthier footing and drive meaningful growth throughout 2026 and beyond.

Food/hospitality

Amanda Stone
Vice president of public affairs, NJ Restaurant and Hospitality Association

Hospitality is often the first industry to reflect changes in consumer confidence and the broader economy. When households have discretionary income, spending on dining and travel follows. At the same time, rising labor, food, energy, and regulatory costs are playing a larger role in shaping both growth and long-term viability for restaurant operators.

Health care

Debbie Hart
CEO, BioNJ

In 2026, several forces will shape the biopharmaceutical and life sciences markets. The industry will be driven by the convergence of scientific innovation and digital transformation, with AI playing an increasingly central role in drug discovery, clinical development, manufacturing and commercial decision making. Breakthroughs in cell and gene therapies, RNA technologies, antibody drug conjugates and personalized medicine will accelerate, supporting improved patient outcomes and fueling pipeline growth especially important as the biopharmaceutical sector approaches major patent expirations totaling $176 billion between 2026 and 2029.

Brian Lawrence
CEO, FellowshipLIFE

The biggest forces shaping aging services in 2026 will be demographics, declining family support, inflation and labor constraints. We’re entering the most significant decade of population aging in our nation’s history, but with fewer adult children, spouses or extended family able to provide care. That reality is accelerating demand for both housing and services across the continuum. At the same time, inflationary pressures in utilities, food and health care continue to challenge providers; and the ongoing shortage of nurses, physical/occupational therapists and caregivers remains the sector’s most limiting factor. Organizations that can scale, innovate and create strong labor pipelines will be best positioned to meet this moment.

Michael Maron
CEO, Holy Name

Three forces will dominate: Reimbursement pressure — especially shrinking commercial margins and Medicaid underfunding. Workforce scarcity — physicians, nurses and techs are all in structural short supply; wages are now a permanent step-up. Technology disruption — AI, automation and clinical decision tools will separate the systems that survive from the ones that fade. The hospitals that stay standing will be those that get their labor model under control, build care pathways that actually reduce friction, and use technology to eliminate waste — not decorate slide decks

Labor

Greg Lalevee
Business manager, IUOE Local 825

Will the Sherrill administration be able to forge a working relationship – more or less – with the White House – similar to what both Govs. [Phil] Murphy and [Kathy] Hochul have been able to achieve? Will the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which expires this year, be reauthorized? Will New Jersey’s supremely complex land use rules continue to slow new projects ranging from affordable housing to data centers and from roads and bridges to increasing our in-state energy capacity?

Law

Christine Amalfe
President, New Jersey State Bar Association; partner, FBT Gibbons

Technology is the driving force behind almost every day-to-day decision in today’s law firm. AI shapes how lawyers conduct research, draft filings, negotiate settlements, analyze contracts and even plan trial strategy or jury selection. Beyond AI, law firm managers rely on a wide range of practice management tools to assist with billing, accounting and file storage. The modern law office is buoyed by technology. Having a robust technological infrastructure is essential for delivering high-quality legal services and remaining competitive. The issue law firms face is how much can they invest in technology and how can they stay ahead of the curve.

Money

George Destafney
Executive vice president and chief commercial real estate officer, OceanFirst Bank

The two most important factors in 2026 are interest rates and technology.  Easing monetary policy can have divergent outcomes, there’s the potential for declining interest rates to have a negative impact on housing by increasing buyer interest and creating more stress on an already limited inventory, while an increase in rates may motivate sellers who are interested in relocating or downsizing and might find it more appealing to consider moving. Technology continues to be at the forefront for financial services, with AI technology having the potential to impact almost every industry resulting in both positive and negative effects.

Public relations

Sandy Crisafullli
President, Caryl Communications

Businesses are fighting to be heard in a crowded, loud marketplace. From a PR and marketing communication perspective, companies have more channels for reaching target audiences and stakeholders than ever before. At the same time, their competitors have – and are leveraging – the same opportunities. Success boils down to cutting through the increased noise to be heard. What hasn’t changed is the importance of approaching this diversified world of paid, earned, shared and owned media through a strategic, goal-based lens: identifying core business objectives, opportunities and pain points, and developing an integrated communication plan that homes in on getting from Point A to B.

April Mason
President, Violet PR

Artificial intelligence will continue to reshape the communications landscape. While it has made content creation faster and more accessible, it has also flooded the market with messages that often sound and look the same. As a result, volume alone is no longer a differentiator. What will matter most is clarity and credibility. Brands that take the time to define their voice, anchor their messaging in real expertise and data, and tell stories that feel human and authentic will stand out. At the same time, the rise of zero-click search and AI-generated search overviews is changing how information is discovered, with audiences increasingly relying on synthesized answers rather than clicking through to websites. As this shift accelerates, earned media will play an even greater role in building visibility, authority and trust. For businesses and organizations in our core verticals of economic development and commercial real estate, strategic communications, earned media and strong narrative discipline are no longer optional. They are essential tools for cutting through noise, shaping perception and competing effectively in an increasingly crowded landscape.

Real estate

Bill Hassan
Executive vice president, CBRE

AI and High-performance computing.

Clark Machemer
Senior managing director, Crow Holdings Development

The normalization of the industrial real estate market is shaking out the folks willing to roll up their sleeves to get successful projects done. Industrial real estate development and demand held an incredible pace from 2018 to 2022. Over the past three years, we have seen that rocket ship of a market come back down to earth, but New Jersey’s position as a magnet for industrial space users has not changed – nor has the opportunity for acquiring land, building and stabilizing quality projects here. Those of us who have been in this space for a long time and have a wider perspective on commercial real estate development are optimistic about what comes next.

Benjamin Downing
Managing principal, DeSimone Consulting Engineering

We anticipate that a key factor will be the ongoing strong demand for residential and mixed-use developments. We see transit-oriented sites continuing to be a driver, especially with regard to accessibility to urban centers, with concerns about affordability in the housing markets also figuring as a factor in development schemes in 2026. The success of public-private partnerships like that which has given rise to the nearly complete Helix NJ Health and Life Science Exchange in downtown New Brunswick – where we’ve been working on the Helix & H3 components – and includes a mix of research laboratory and office space, Rutgers Medical School and a 39-story mixed-use residential tower, could positively influence the approach to future development in the state. And, even as the 930 McCarter residential development in Newark nears completion, and Harborside 8, a mixed-use residential tower in Jersey City, breaks ground, two other projects for which we’re providing structural engineering, we anticipate that the need for multifamily housing, especially affordable housing, will be a factor in keeping the residential sector strong.

David Greek
Managing partner, Greek Real Estate Partners

Interest rates and access to capital will be the biggest drivers in the industrial real estate market, as higher borrowing costs have been the primary factor limiting new development and investment. Lower borrowing costs would reduce uncertainty and allow stalled projects, refinancing and reinvestment activity to move forward. At the same time, long-term demand fundamentals remain strong, particularly for last-mile, small-bay and cold storage facilities near population centers — even as new supply has slowed significantly. Reshoring and nearshoring trends, influenced by tariffs and national security priorities, are also supporting continued domestic industrial demand. Other key facts will include tenant credit quality, infrastructure constraints and limited available supply. Power availability, in particular, along with regulatory pressures, will continue to shape where and how industrial development occurs.

Alex Kachris
Senior research manager, JLL Northeast Industrial

From a tenant perspective, industrial leasing will continue to be driven by companies seeking to balance operational efficiency, supply chain resilience and cost management. This will manifest in best-in-class assets significantly outperforming lower-quality buildings, which is a trend we’ve observed for several years. This flight-to-quality allows companies to effectively automate facilities, increase cubic capacity and integrate AI most effectively. However, it is creating a bifurcated market where Class B and C properties could face significant challenges, potentially creating opportunities for value-add investors. From an owner/developer perspective, strengthening market fundamentals over the past 18 months and significant dry powder ready for deployment into industrial assets should drive continued momentum in capital markets and unlock new land opportunities for developers. Should interest rates continue declining, we expect capital to become increasingly aggressive, creating enhanced opportunities for both buyers and sellers —though rapid rate declines could signal underlying economic weakness that might temper tenant demand.

Charles Burton
Head of government and community relations, Lefrak

New housing construction and substantial building renovations are impacted by numerous political and economic issues at all levels of government. On the national level, we’re continuing to absorb the impact of tariffs on new housing construction, the rising costs of new furniture and equipment for in-demand amenity spaces, and the rising price tag of appliances for new apartment units. Other macroeconomic issues that impact housing construction and leasing include but are not limited to job creation and unemployment, interest rates for project financing and inflation.

Matthew Harding
CEO, Levin Management Corp.

Retail real estate’s outlook remains anchored in fundamentals, and forward-thinking owners are staying ahead by reinvesting and planning proactively. Across the industry, the “flight to quality” continues, with well-located, open-air centers anchored by grocery and other daily-needs uses consistently outperforming. Even when vacancy or store-closure headlines surface, demand remains concentrated in functional, well-merchandised space, and many vacated boxes are being backfilled quickly by expanding value, service, wellness and experience-driven concepts. Retailers are also leaning into omnichannel strategies that keep physical stores central to growth, and our clients are leaning into the same playbook — repositioning, upgrading, and adapting their centers to remain relevant, competitive and durable as conditions evolve.

Blake Chroman
Principal, Sitex Group

Industrial users will increasingly prioritize heavy utilities, and not just power. Fiber, water and gas will continue to gain importance to users. What used to be buried deep in leasing materials is now front-and-center, and sites that can support utility-intensive uses will stand out. We expect the flight to quality to continue, with tenants looking to do more with less by moving into newer, Class A facilities that offer better functionality, higher clear heights, more loading capacity, better trailer and car parking, and stronger utility infrastructure. We also anticipate continued absorption of the new product delivered over the last few years, which should meaningfully tighten the availability picture by the end of 2026.

Jon Williams
Senior vice president, CBRE

The New Jersey office market is undergoing a significant transformation driven by both structural and financial pressures. First, the conversion of commodity office space to alternative uses (primarily multifamily residential) has accelerated since 2020, with 22.3 million square feet already removed from inventory. Projections indicate that an additional 3 million square feet could be eliminated in 2026, representing roughly 2% of the 2025 total office stock. This trend has gained momentum following the recent New Jersey Supreme Court decision on the Fourth Round of Affordable Housing obligations, which has prompted municipalities to scramble for compliance. Many towns are actively pursuing redevelopment opportunities with developers to meet these requirements, while others are resisting the mandates handed down by the court, creating a dynamic and sometimes contentious environment for adaptive redevelopment projects. Second, financial challenges are reshaping ownership dynamics. Many properties that secured debt during the low-interest COVID era now face refinancing hurdles, leaving some owners unable to retain their assets. Elevated interest rates have made it more costly to fund capital improvements or TI allowances that would facilitate deal flow. The complex leasehold structures of several properties further complicate the resolution of financially troubled assets. This financial strain is contributing to market volatility. Third, these two prior trends have fueled a “flight to prime” (prime = best of the best) phenomenon. Tenants are prioritizing fully “amenitized” high-quality buildings to attract and retain talent. Prime assets command a 21% rental premium and boast vacancy rates 12.3% lower than the broader market. In prime submarkets, scarcity is driving rates to record highs with examples including The Park at NJ (suburban office campus in Berkeley Heights) asking $50 per square foot, Morristown also asking $50 per square foot and Summit surpassing $70 per square foot. This bifurcation is expected to persist as demand for best-in-class space intensifies.