On June 16, just its third day of trading, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, was briefly the fourth-largest company by market cap. Its stock has pulled back since then, but it’s still in the top 10 as of June 25.
The space company’s fast rise drew comparisons to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the chipmaker that’s currently the world’s most valuable business. Some Wall Street analysts have even predicted that SpaceX’s market cap could surpass Nvidia’s. Here’s a look at the most bullish projections and how these two companies really compare.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
The analysts predicting a big move from SpaceX
Nvidia’s market cap sits at about $4.7 trillion, and multiple analysts have set targets beyond that for SpaceX. Arete analyst Andrew Beale gave SpaceX a buy rating and a price target of $401 by the end of next year, which would translate to a market cap of about $5.3 trillion — enough to surpass Nvidia’s current market cap, although there’s no telling exactly where it will be in the future.
Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan predicts that SpaceX could be worth $10 trillion within five years. CNBC’s Jim Cramer said SpaceX stock could grow very quickly after its IPO due to its small float, and he has made multiple market-cap predictions for it in television appearances, including $5 trillion and $6 trillion.
Cramer’s prediction is tied to the hype around SpaceX stock, but Beale and Horan based their forecasts on the strength of the business. They both cited Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, as one of the main drivers of growth. Starlink anchors SpaceX’s connectivity segment, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, 61% of its total sales. It’s also fast-growing, going from 9 million customers in 2025 to 12 million across more than 160 countries this month.
Founder and CEO Elon Musk has said that V3 Starlink satellites should launch later this year. These satellites are a significant upgrade over previous versions, with 10x the V2 version’s downlink speeds and an even larger jump in uplink capacity.
SpaceX also has its launch business, which accounted for 80% of U.S. commercial launches in 2025, and its AI business. Although its AI segment lost money in 2025, the company has made some smart moves recently. It’s leasing computing capacity to AI companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet, and it acquired Cursor, a popular AI coding start-up, in a $60 billion all-stock deal.
