I think that the Iranians knew that this war was going to be something where they were going to have to fight for their lives. An existential war. And when Trump and Netanyahu said to the Iranian people, openly, “It will be yours to take,” the Iranian regime understood that this was do-or-die for them.
So I don’t know when they planned to block the Strait of Hormuz, but they definitely decided this was the time to do it. Of course, they got ready for that before the war, but I think that they decided to act once they understood that this was going to be a fight to the end. And I think they were surprised by how effective it was. They probably asked themselves why they didn’t do that before.
So I think that we actually pushed them into this understanding that they had to play all their cards, which they did.
Yes, assassinating their leaders might have played into that.
Listen, the killing of Ali Khamenei and the leadership, the statements coming right after, all those things made the Iranians understand that this is going to be the fight for the future of the regime. And that meant all possibilities were on the table.
It’s strange, because you would think that Trump would have been happy to just replace the Iranian leadership with a more pliant regime.
He should have stopped the war after three days.
Trump should have?
Yes, he should have stopped the war and offered to negotiate. There was no purpose after that. After three days, we all knew that there was not going to be any regime change in Iran. So why continue the war? Stop the war, say you won, negotiate on nuclear, capitalize on the fact that they are in disarray, and try to reach an agreement. Now? Now it’s a catastrophe!
And why didn’t they do that?
Because he didn’t have any strategy, any plan, any anything. There were also none of the right experts in the room. Instead, there were people saying, You can do this, you can do that, telling Trump lies. Look at the blockade. How pathetic is his blockade? You should have done it before, not after. Who thought that this blockade would make Iran capitulate? Come on! You don’t know the Iranians. It was obvious it wasn’t going to work.
What’s your understanding, or your guess, of how Lebanon would fit into this potential deal? The Iranians want to defend their asset, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and the Israelis want the freedom to continue bombing or invading Lebanon whenever they want. Some Israeli leaks suggest Israel will still have the ability to act freely in Lebanon, and perhaps more importantly, it’s hard to imagine Trump really continuing to rein Netanyahu in, unless the Iranians make Lebanon a priority and threaten to close the strait again or something along those lines.
I can tell you that the Iranians are not going to give up on the Lebanese issue. And this is a major problem for Netanyahu. Hezbollah has proven itself to be a vital element of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance. So Lebanon presents a real strategic importance for Iran. And one of the biggest achievements that Iran had during the war was connecting the two conflicts. So I don’t think they will accept Israel continuing to attack Lebanon over what Israel claims is self-defense against Hezbollah. Therefore, Trump has a mountain to climb because he’s promising something to Netanyahu that he did in the previous ceasefire. Trump told Netanyahu, It’s not a problem, continue in Lebanon. And I don’t know what Trump will do now, but if he wants to reach an agreement, he will force Netanyahu’s hand on Lebanon. And this is a major problem for Israel.
Right, Trump also clearly wanted some sort of peace deal in Gaza, which he got, but in the months since, the Israelis have continued taking bits of territory and striking Gaza when they want to. Now the difference is that Hamas doesn’t have any control over the global economy.
Exactly—it’s not at all the same thing here.
Do you view the war as a strategic and political defeat for Israel in the same way you do for America?
It’s a collapse of the Israeli doctrine regarding Iran. Not only a defeat, not only a fiasco. A collapse. Look at what Netanyahu promised this whole time. He said, Just give me the opportunity to attack Iran. And he got it, twice. He got the U.S. beside him with all that power, the satellites, the air force, everything, and what have we got? A more radicalized regime that can rush into a nuclear bomb and still have a conventional missile capacity. It’s a shit show, because at the end of the day, everything that Netanyahu promised failed miserably. And now Senator Lindsey Graham is talking about normalization. Come on. How can you be this disconnected from the situation in the Middle East? Israel is perceived as more of a threat than Iran by some countries after this. How are you going to have an agreement while Israel is annexing the West Bank?
Right, Lindsey Graham and others have suggested that an end to this war could lead to closer coöperation between some Arab and Muslim states and Israel, with perhaps more countries signing on to the Abraham Accords. Do you think this is plausible?
[Laughs.] This is so disconnected from reality. Just listen to what the Saudis are saying. The Palestinian issue is vital for them. It’s not going to work. It’s selling a mirage. We have to be realistic.
You hear from hawks that the war did a number of important things, primarily that it destroyed much of Iran’s long-range missile capacity. What do you make of that argument?
[Laughs.] Yes, yes. Well, there was definitely damage, but there are a couple of things you have to remember. They will rebuild that capacity, and are already rebuilding it, as the C.I.A. report from earlier this month says. Secondly, they still have most of their launchers and missiles, as the report says. And they will rebuild it, exactly like they did after the Twelve-Day War in June of 2025. We know that they have the capacity to do so. Yes, the damage probably is greater because of the U.S. working with Israel. But so what? It won’t take them one month. It will take them four months or six months. It doesn’t matter. They will return to their capacity. They have the motivation and the knowledge.
