Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Vince Gilligan
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Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: May 8, 2026): Get all your paperwork in!
Friday, May 8, is the day the Emmy race goes from theoretical to mathematical. Primetime Emmy submissions close tonight, and the totals filed in each category will determine how many nominee slots open up across the board. That math matters most in acting, where the threshold for a sixth, seventh or eighth slot can hinge on a handful of names. Studios, strategists and personal publicists have spent the past week stress-testing every veteran, every breakout and every guest gambit they think is worth a campaign.
The race is real but it has not (fully) taken shape. There’s plenty of time for some surprise contenders to pop up.
Drama remains a wide-open field led by “The Pitt,” with “Pluribus,” “Slow Horses” and “Paradise,” all in legitimate contention. Comedy looks no clearer, with “Hacks” leading the way. “The Bear,” which dropped a surprise episode, is now bundled into FX’s Season 4 package. The episode will represent Jon Bernthal officially for guest comedy actor, and because he co-wrote the episode with his co-star Ebon Moss-Bachrach, the same hour also lands him in the writing for a comedy series field.
The latest updates for the week are below.
NOTE: All official category placements in predictions have yet to be confirmed.
Upcoming key dates: category submissions are due May 7, with eligibility ending May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 11-22, with nominations being announced on July 8. Final voting takes place Aug. 17–26, leading into the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony will be on Sept. 14 on NBC.
Projected nomination leaders (series): TBA
Projected nomination leaders (networks): TBA
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Drama Series
Image Credit: HBO Max “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“Task” (HBO Max)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Comedy Series
Image Credit: FX “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
“Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: HBO Max “Beef” (Netflix) ***
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Outstanding Movie
Image Credit: Netflix “Deep Cover” (Prime Video)
“Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice” (Hulu)
“Miss You, Love You” (HBO Max)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) ***
“People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Hulu Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO Max Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) ***
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story: John F Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: CBS Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Netflix Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sarah Enticknap/PEACOCK Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Paramount+ Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Emily V. Aragones/Netflix © 202 Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: HBO Max Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
Song Kang Ho, “Beef” (Netflix)
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Warrick Page/MAX Isa Briones, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Laurie Metcalf, “Big Mistakes” (Netflix)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) ***
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Grace Gummer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Naomi Watts, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Guest Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Paramount+ Eric Dane, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) ***
Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Paul Giamatti, “Star Trek: Starfleet Academy” (Paramount+)
Jeff Kober, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Samba Schutte, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Bradley Whitford, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: CBS Tal Anderson, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Yvette Nicole Brown, “Matlock” (CBS)
Tatiana Maslany, “Star Trek: Starfleet Academy” (Paramount+)
Elisabeth Moss, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Miriam Shor, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Shailene Woodley, “Paradise” (Hulu) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV Jon Bernthal, “The Bear” (FX)
Jeff Daniels, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Tony Goldwyn, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Michael J. Fox, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Rob Reiner, “The Bear” (FX)
Alan Ruck, “Rooster” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX Candice Bergen, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Bear” (FX)
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Bear” (FX)
Cherry Jones, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Laurie Metcalf, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: Netflix “The Diplomat” (Netflix) — Alex Graves, “Schrodinger’s Wife”
“Euphoria” (HBO Max) — Sam Levinson, “In God We Trust”
“Paradise” (Hulu) — Ken Olin, “A Holy Change”
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) — John Wells, “9:00 P.M.”
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Vince Gilligan, “We Is Us” ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — Saul Metzstein, “Scars”
“Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Eight: The Rightside Up”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Prime Video “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Randall Einhorn, “Miami”
“Hacks” (HBO Max) — Lucia Aniello, “TBD Series Finale” ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video) — Jake Szymanski, “Mergers & Acquisitions”
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — Dearbhla Walsh, “Flamingoes”
“The Ms. Pat Show” (BET) — Mary Lou Belli, “Killin’ and Dyin’”
“Rooster” (HBO Max) — Jonathan Krisel, “Release the Brown Fat”
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) — Randall Keenan Winston, “And That’s Our Time”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix) — Jake Schreier, “It Will Stay This Way and You Will Obey” ***
“Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — Jason Bateman, “The Black Rabbits”
“Death by Lightning” (Netflix) — Matt Ross, “Series”
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Steven Conrad, “Series”
“Half Man” (HBO Max) — Alexandra Brodski, “TBD Episode 1”
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Marc Munden, “Series”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max “The Audacity” (AMC) — “Best of All Possible Worlds” by Jonathan Glatzer
“The Diplomat” (Netflix) — “Schrodinger’s Wife” by Debora Cahn
“Industry” (HBO Max) — “Both, And” by Mickey Down and Konrad Kay
“Paradise” (Hulu) — “Exodus” by John Hoberg and Seena Haddad
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) — “9:00 P.M.” by R. Scott Gemmill
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) — “We Is Us” by Vince Gilligan
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — “Scars” by Will Smith ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO Max “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Team Building” by Quinta Brunson
“The Bear” (FX) — “Goodbye” by Christopher Storer
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC) — “Pilot” by Robert Carlock and Sam Means
“Hacks” (HBO Max) — “TBD Series Finale” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video) — “Onboarding” by Anthony King
“The Lowdown” (FX) — “Pilot” by Sterlin Harjo
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) — “And That’s Our Time” by Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein and Neil Goldman ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Hulu “Beef” (Netflix) — “Episode 8” by Lee Sung Jin and Anna Ouyang Moench
“Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — “The Cyclone” by Zach Baylin and Kate Susman
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Series by Steven Conrad
“Half Man” (HBO Max) — Series by Richard Gadd ***
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Series by Jack Thorne
“Washington Black” (Hulu) — “The Flying Man & the Musician” by Selwyn Seyfu HindsEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Variety Series
Image Credit: ABC “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Casting (Drama)
Image Credit: Apple TV “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Casting (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“The Lowdown” (FX)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
“Spider-Noir” (Prime Video)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Casting (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix)
“Death by Lightning” (Netflix)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) ***
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Competition Program
Image Credit: CBS “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS) ***
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Game Show
Image Credit: Dropout “Celebrity Family Feud” (Syndicated)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated) ***
“The Price is Right” (Syndicated)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndicated)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Host for Reality/Competition Program
Image Credit: CBS RuPaul Charles, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
Kristen Kish, “Top Chef” (Bravo)
Padma Lakshmi, “America’s Culinary Cup” (CBS)
Jeff Probst, “Survivor” (CBS) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Structured Reality Program
Image Credit: Netflix “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
“Shark Tank” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Unstructured Reality Program
Image Credit: Netflix “Funny AF with Kevin Hart” (Netflix)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix) ***
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)Animated Program
Image Credit: Disney “Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“King of the Hill” (Hulu)
“Mating Season” (Netflix)
“Rick and Morty” (Adult Swim)
“The Simpsons” (Fox) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary (Series)
Image Credit: Melinda Sue Gordon “Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
“Rafa” (Netflix)
“Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)
“Taylor Swift: The End of an Era” (Disney+)
“The Yogurt Shop Murders” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary (Special)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime “John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video) ***
“Marty, Life is Short” (Netflix)
“Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man” (HBO Max)
“My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
“Ocean with David Attenborough” (National Geographic)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Hosted Nonfiction Series/Special
Image Credit: Netflix “The Dinosaurs” (Netflix)
“Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates Jr.” (PBS)
“My Next Guest with David Letterman and Adam Sandler” (Netflix)
“The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV) ***
“Tucci in Italy” (National Geographic)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Variety Special (Live)
Image Credit: Getty Images “The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” (Roc Nation) ***
“BTS The Comeback Live: Arirang” (Netflix)
“The Oscars” (ABC)
“The 68th Grammy Awards” (Paramount+)
“Skyscraper Live” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Image Credit: Netflix “Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable” (Netflix)
“Kevin Hart: Acting My Age” (Netflix)
“Marc Maron: Panicked” (HBO Max)
“Nikki Glaser: Good Girl” (Hulu) ***
“2025 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
