In a little more than two months, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alexander Vindman raised about $5 million more in campaign donations than Republican incumbent Ashley Moody did from January through March.
That gap, detailed Wednesday in the disclosure of federal campaign finance reports, is giving U.S. and Florida Democrats glimmers of hope that this could be what is known as a wave year when the opposition party rises up to reclaim power.
Vindman, a former National Security Council aide who testified against President Donald Trump during his first impeachment in 2019, filed to run against Moody in late January. From then until April 1, Vindman raised about $8 million compared to barely over $3 million Moody raised between her candidate account and a joint committee for the first quarter.
As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, Vindman’s report had yet to be published on the Federal Election Commission website to verify his campaign claims.
Moody, a former Florida attorney general who was appointed to the Senate last year by Gov. Ron DeSantis, has raised a total of $10.4 million since she filed to run in January 2025.
Vindman’s campaign touted the nature of the donations it’s received — 27,600 from individuals that averaged $40 — as an indication of Vindman’s grassroots support vs. the corporate interests backing Moody.
“Today’s fundraising numbers prove that our campaign is being fueled by grassroots supporters who are fed up with the rampant corruption in D.C., and rising costs,” Vindman said in a statement issued by his campaign. “While Moody’s campaign is bankrolled by the political elite.”
With the U.S. Senate now composed of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, there’s an outside chance that Democrats could retake the chamber in the fall. Under such a scenario, Florida’s seat would be critical.
Yet Florida Republicans said Wednesday that they have the money to ward off any challenge from Vindman or any other Democrat.
“The idea that Florida is in play sounds a lot like what the Democrats were saying two or four years ago,” said Evan Power, the chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times. “Between (Moody’s) higher totals and our cash advantage on a national level, we’ll be competitive.”
That’s not exactly the tone Power set in a Friday email blast to donors. With the subject line, “You thought we were kidding?” Power warned Republicans of complacency.
“Alexander Vindman has already pulled in over $8 million to try to unseat Ashley Moody,” Power wrote. “Let me be blunt: millions of dollars are pouring into Democrat coffers right now. National groups, outside donors, and activists are lining up to target Florida and take back the U.S. Senate.”
Power said donor messaging serves as a call to action that doesn’t necessarily reflect the state of play.
“There’s a difference between fundraising and the realities on the ground,” Power said. “We should always run this party like we’re 10 points down.”
He noted an overwhelming cash advantage, pointing to what the two state parties had on hand. The GOP has about $10 million. The Florida Democratic Party has $1.2 million.
At the same time Democrats cheered Vindman’s campaign haul, they downplayed this disparity in cash.
“I don’t care if the (Republican Party of Florida) outraises us, because they are going to get their asses kicked in the midterms,” said Nikki Fried, chairperson of the Florida Democratic Party.
Voters have heard this type of tough talk from Democrats before, only to see them lose come Election Day. At this same juncture in 2022, much was made when Val Demings, the Democratic Senate nominee, had raised more than the Republican incumbent, Marco Rubio. She lost by 1.3 million votes, with Rubio winning 57% to 41%.
And it’s been 14 years since Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Florida, and that was the reelection of an incumbent, Bill Nelson. It’s been almost twice as long, 25 years, since the party won an open Senate seat (Nelson again in 2000).
But Fried and other Democrats say this year is different. They point to “the environment” of larger national trends that are at this point beyond anyone’s control and tilting in a direction that’s favorable to Democrats. The party has already picked up victories at the ballot box in special elections, such as the legislative ones in Hillsborough and Palm Beach counties, that are outperforming what national Democrats are seeing in their wins.
A recent statewide poll of 1,834 adults in late March indicates that Trump is driving independent voters to support Democrats by a 2-1 margin. Fried said Democrats are mobilized in ways that they have not been for many years. Last year, for instance, they reached 5 million voters with phone calls and home visits. In other off years, they hadn’t made any contacts, Fried said.
“This is a different moment. The Democratic Party is more organized than before,” Fried said. “This is a very different state. This will be a different election.”
Signs of a national wave year for Democrats abound. In the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas, James Talarico, a state representative, raised $27 million in the first quarter. He will face the winner of the May 26 runoff in the Republican primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democratic Senate candidates in Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio are also raising record sums.
Fried said national money will continue to flow into Florida.
“We’re seeing a lot more energy and attention back on Florida,” Fried said. “Waves don’t happen on their own.”
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