“Redistricting is going from like a decennial bare-knuckle rugby match to an every-other-year Hunger Games.” — U.S. Sen. Jamie Raskin, D-Maryland
Florida legislators will troop back to Tallahassee Tuesday at the behest of Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose special session will require members of his party in both chambers to pass a new congressional map.
Leading up to this special session, DeSantis has offered a variety of reasons to justify the need for mid-decade redistricting.
“I think if you look at that Florida Supreme Court analysis, there may be more defects that need to be remedied apart from what we’ve already done. I also think the way the population has shifted around Florida just since the Census was done in 2020, I think the state was malapportioned. So, I do think it would be appropriate to do a redistricting here in the mid-decade,” he said during a press conference last year.
DeSantis added that he thought Florida got a “raw deal,” arguing the state should have garnered at least two additional seats due to population growth.
At the conclusion of the special session, DeSantis and his co-conspirators hope to give Republican congressional leaders some much-needed breathing room if they manage to survive the 2026 midterms. Currently, the House of Representatives is split 217-212, Republicans over Democrats, with one independent and five seats vacant. The 119th Congress has consistently operated with a razor-thin margin, the smallest majority for any party since the 72nd Congress in 1931, CNN says.
Republicans’ last chance
Political observers say Florida represents Republicans’ last chance to try to redraw congressional district lines before the midterms to ensure Donald Trump continues to elude oversight and isn’t held accountable for what U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen calls his “illegal and unconstitutional ways … that weaken our democratic institutions, slow down our economy, roll back protections for public health and the environment, and put healthcare and Social Security benefits at risk for millions of Americans.”
DeSantis’ redrawn maps would add four GOP-leaning districts to the existing 20-8 Republican-Democratic advantage. The goal of the governor and the MAGA Republican crew is to continue to weaken Democratic power while increasing GOP-friendly seats.
Yet as The Hill’s Carol Vakil notes, fear is running deeply through Republican circles.
“Florida Republicans are barreling ahead with a high-stakes redistricting session as the party looks to offset Democrats’ new maps in Virginia,” Vakil says.
“The [redistricting] effort, however, has some Republicans warning Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to tread lightly, pointing to recent Democratic wins across the states as well as the Florida Constitution’s clear anti-gerrymandering language. They warn the push could pose more risk than reward — arguing that changing the maps could ultimately backfire on the party.”
A Florida Republican operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Vakil Republicans aren’t “all that optimistic” about redrawing new maps.
“Redistricting is fraught with peril,” the Florida GOP operative said. “You’re going to be diluting strong Republican districts to try and create other potential Republican districts,” the person added. “And in doing so, if the atmospherics are bad going into the November election, you risk losing those seats.”
‘The less, the better’
Vakil also spoke to another anonymous GOP consultant who is close to DeSantis and the Legislature who discussed the redistricting session. “I don’t feel great about it,” the person said. “I think if you ask most Republican consultants, they’re hoping and praying that they don’t go for many seats.”
“The less, the better,” they added.
Florida Republicans and others in GOP circles are jittery because of recent Democratic victories in the Sunshine State and elsewhere across the country. In the March special elections, Dems flipped two GOP-held state legislative seats — including the state House district where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort sits.
In addition, Florida’s Constitution has strict anti-gerrymandering language which prohibits lawmakers from redrawing congressional lines for partisan gain.
“Anticipating lawsuits against any redistricting plan,” Vakil added, “some in the GOP expressed concern it would be hard to defend the redrawing of maps before the Florida Supreme Court — even though the majority of justices were appointed by DeSantis.
Surveys show that most Floridians oppose DeSantis’ plan.
“More than 56% of 1,125 likely Florida voters think it’s a “bad idea,” according to an Emerson College poll released last week. That includes 64% of independents and 65% of Democrats, while 57% of Republicans support the idea,” the Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry writes.
Likewise, Democratic critics in Florida and Washington, D.C., are beating DeSantis about the head and face.
‘F around and find out’
State Senate Majority Leader Lori Berman joined the chorus of Democrats who are firmly opposed to redistricting and who have called it illegal because Florida’s Constitution prohibits drawing new districts for partisan gain or to help or harm incumbents.
“Pushing it back one week doesn’t change the fact that there is no reason for us to be doing a mid-decade restricting congressional map,” said Berman after news of the session delay broke. “The same concerns we raised — having to do with the fact that there are no new Census numbers and that the only reason appears to be to get more Republican seats — are still in play. This is a violation of the Fair Districts Amendment and is unconstitutional.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies didn’t mince words.
“Our message to Florida Republicans is F around and find out,” Jeffries said, according to Fox News. “If they go down the road of a DeSantis dummymander the electoral tide is turning in Florida.”
DeSantis responded by welcoming Jeffries to travel to Florida. The clash between Jefferies and DeSantis happened in the same week Virginia voters approved a referendum to redraw that state’s congressional maps to eliminate four Republican seats. A Virginia trial judge issued an order blocking the results of the referendum; the Virginia Supreme Court heard arguments in the case Monday.
Axios’ Marc Caputo and other journalists have demonstrated the different ways DeSantis is playing games. Caputo writes that DeSantis has rejected lawmakers’ calls to have an open process and draw the maps during the regular January lawmaking session.
“Instead, he’s embarked on a plan to have his office redraw Florida’s map, rush the plan through the legislature — and try to run out the clock on Democratic court challenges as the state gears up for the Nov. 3 elections,” Caputo explains.
Caputo argues that DeSantis’ clock-management strategy is rooted in:
- The “Purcell Principle,” which generally limits lower courts from overturning election laws too close to an election to avoid voter confusion.
- The apex doctrine, or executive privilege, which means that because DeSantis’ employees are drafting the maps, the governor’s team could argue in court that executive privilege shields them.
- Secrecy. “DeSantis’ office is drafting the maps in such secrecy that plaintiffs could have trouble finding whom to depose and what records to look for. That would cause more delays,” Caputo said.
Caputo outlines what he calls a crucial “friction point.”
“There’s a risk in creating more Republican seats in Florida, which requires breaking up Democratic districts or diluting them. That can make surrounding GOP-held seats vulnerable as they get more Democratic voters,” he writes. “And as gas prices climb and Trump’s poll numbers fall, Republicans could lose once-safe seats as Democrats and independents are added to a district.
“It’s yin-and-yang: To make blue seats more purple, you have to make red seats more purple,” said one Florida legislative Republican. The possibility of a partisan gerrymander backfiring has spawned a nickname: “dummymander.”
Being the good representative of Florida’s political interests that he is, DeSantis earlier this year explained his rationaleFen for the special session.
“Every Florida resident deserves to be represented fairly and constitutionally,” DeSantis said in January. “I will … ensure that Florida’s congressional maps accurately reflect the population of our state and to comply with an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling.”
‘Race to the bottom’
At the end of the day, one opponent said, this is about DeSantis’ political fortunes.
“No one in Florida wants this,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told the Phoenix before DeSantis released his map.
“Not his own congressional members. Not legislative leaders. Not voters. Fifty-six percent of Floridians just said so in a brand-new poll. Ron DeSantis is fighting a battle nobody asked him to fight, spending money nobody wants him to spend on a map nobody has even seen yet. This has never been about Florida, it has always been about him. That is his legacy: self over service, every single time.”
Nationally, MSNBC columnist Michael Cohen opines, the implications for the country are stark.
“So, all these special legislative sessions, state constitution amendments and costly referendums could change little. But make no mistake: They will have an impact. A redistricting race to the bottom will create more and more one-party states, with little to no federal representation from a rival political party,” said Cohen, who writes the political newsletter, “Truth and Consequences.”
“The country’s already substantial political divides will grow wider and deeper. The standard criticism of gerrymandering is that it allows politicians to choose their voters. The current redistricting craze could have an even more enduring impact — by allowing both political parties to choose what kind of country they want: a red one or a blue one.”
