The National Hurricane Center is eyeing a spot off Florida’s Gulf Coast with a low probability of becoming a tropical system.
The blob is not likely to become much of anything, but it could bring some much-needed rain to drought-stricken Tampa Bay.
Forecasters said Wednesday morning that an area of low pressure could form this weekend in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly develop as it slowly moves northeast over the Gulf and near the southeastern U.S. next week.
The system has a 20% chance of forming over the next seven days.
“Nothing to worry about in terms of a major system,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote Wednesday morning on Facebook.
The system could bring a beneficial boost of rain, Phillips said.
A forecast from the National Weather Service in Ruskin said that signs continue to show increased rain chances this weekend and into early next week.
The rainfall likely won’t be a drought buster, but could be “substantial,” wrote Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for WFLA.
‼️ *NHC development chance 20%*
*Rain gets a boost!*
We now have more clarity on Gulf low pressure and it’s the best of both World’s. We likely get the rain, with only the slight chance of a subtropical/ tropical depression. Confidence is now moderate on rain, but still low on… pic.twitter.com/L0F1oVjvYq— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 15, 2026
Heavier rain will likely stay over the Gulf, but Florida’s west coast can expect on-and-off showers.
A map posted by Berardelli showed portions of Tampa Bay could receive up to 4 inches of rain over the next week.
Outside of the potential blob of weather near Florida, the hurricane center is not watching any other possible systems.
The hurricane season has been quiet, with just one named storm — Tropical Storm Arthur — so far. The next named storm on the list is Bertha.
Researchers from Colorado State University further downgraded their hurricane season forecast last week, calling for fewer tropical storms that average.
The university had already reduced its expectations last month.
Now, researchers predict nine named storms, of which four will become hurricanes and one will become a major hurricane. If the forecast holds, it would be one of the weakest seasons this century.
The forecast is due largely to a robust El Niño that is likely to become even stronger later this season. The weather pattern typically leads to fewer storms during the Atlantic hurricane season because it creates increased wind shear that can tear up budding storms.
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Tampa Bay Times 2026 hurricane guide
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What is a ‘super El Niño’? And what does it mean for hurricanes in Florida?
What to know about river flooding in Tampa Bay this hurricane season
Hurricane forecasts are overwhelming. Here’s how to read them
What should you pack in your storm kit? Here’s where to start
Get Times storm alerts on all your devices
How Tampa Bay seniors, others can get help evacuating
How to handle fires, tree limbs and other hazards after a storm
Here are the lessons you learned from Tampa Bay’s historic 2024 hurricane season
