Jon Metler
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 14, 2026 , 09:38 PM ET
• 4 min read
The market has made the Thunder and the Pistons the early favorites to win the 2026 NBA Cup.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams (8) smiles after a play against the Indiana Pacers during the first quarter at Paycom Center.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons headline the 2026 NBA Cup odds on Polymarket, one of our top prediction market apps.
The Boston Celtics are close behind, setting the stage for what could be a wide-open race for the NBA Cup.
With the new NBA season approaching, we’re breaking down the latest Emirates NBA Cup odds, tournament schedule, and group-stage matchups to watch.
2026 NBA Cup odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Odds last updated on 10-14. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $25 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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2026 NBA Cup odds favorites
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable path through the group stage. The Minnesota Timberwolves pose the biggest challenge, especially with LaMelo Ball joining the roster, but they’ll still be working to establish their identity early in the season.
Beyond Minnesota, the Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans all look like teams unlikely to factor into the playoff picture, giving the Thunder a relatively manageable path through the group stage.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs reached the NBA Cup Final last season before falling to the New York Knicks, mirroring the outcome of the NBA Finals. Since then, San Antonio’s young core has gained another year of valuable experience on the biggest stage, while the offseason addition of Tobias Harris has added another layer of veteran depth.
The bigger question heading into this year’s NBA Cup is how the Spurs manage their young players’ workloads early in the season, especially after a long campaign that extended all the way to the NBA Finals.
NBA Cup groups
The league’s 30 teams will all compete in randomly drawn groups for the opening round, divided by conference, as listed below:
🥇: Group winner
🥈: Wild Card
NBA Cup explained
Group Play
Each team will begin the tournament in one of six groups, divided by conference and randomly drawn from tiers based on the previous season’s record, to ensure relative competitive balance.
Within each group, all teams will play regular-season games against each other on designated Tournament Nights from October 30 to November 27: Every Friday and also Tuesday, Nov. 24, and Wednesday, Nov. 25.
The records in those games determine who advances to the Knockout Round.
Knockout Round
The Knockout Round is comprised of eight teams, which begins on December 4-5:
- The winners of each of the six groups
- A wild-card team from each conference (the second-place team with the best record)
The Knockout Round is a single-elimination bracket. Teams in each conference with the best record will get home-court advantage in these matchups.
The semifinals and finals take place at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 8 and 11, with the winner of each conference facing off for the NBA Cup.
Teams that make the knockout round will be awarded portions of an as-of-yet undisclosed prize pool, increasing the further they make it. A Tournament MVP and All-Tournament Team will also be awarded after play has concluded.
