The American people have spoken — and they have created a blue wave for the ages.
If you hadn’t already known by eyeballing the election results — Democrats winning solid majorities in the U.S. Senate, U.S. House and the governorships — a look at my wave-measurement scorecard published in the Tampa Bay Times the Sunday before Election Day will confirm it.
For the 12th consecutive election cycle, and for the ninth consecutive campaign cycle for the Times, I have assembled a guide to measuring the size of the wave by one party or the other.
The idea was to lay down a marker to measure, after Election Day, how strong or weak a 2026 Democratic wave turned out to be. The baseline drew on pre-election analysis from independent electoral handicappers, including the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and my own Almanac of American Politics Substack. Then I established a sliding scale that awards more credit to the surging party for exceeding the conventional wisdom once the ballots are counted.
Below are the seven factors I use to measure this year’s partisan wave, and how the results stacked up.
1. Who wins these key U.S. Senate races?
Key races: South Dakota, Mississippi, Idaho, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina (note: Independents are running rather than Democrats in South Dakota, Idaho and Nebraska)
Democrats won South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Georgia and North Carolina. They are leading in Mississippi and Alaska. That’s between 11 and 13 Democratic wins — right on the cusp between “very good night for Democrats” and “extremely good night for Democrats,” pending the results in those final uncalled states.
2. How much are Democratic Senate candidates able to cut into Republican margins in very red states?
States to watch, with the Democratic or independent candidate’s improvement over Kamala Harris’ performance in 2024:
Idaho (independent candidate) +4; Arkansas: +8; South Dakota (independent candidate) +5; Mississippi +15; Nebraska (independent candidate) +5; South Carolina +11; Kansas +10; Texas +13; Florida +5; Iowa +8; Alaska +7; Ohio +6.
Average: +8
That fits in the category for “strong night for Democrats.”
3. How many net seats in the U.S. House are gained or lost?
As of midday Thursday, the Democrats had netted at least 32 seats. That should grow as more races are officially called, but even with 32, that meets the standard for an “extremely strong night for Democrats.”
4. Who wins the key gubernatorial seats?
Key races: New Hampshire, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, Florida, Georgia, Vermont, Nevada, Alaska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico
Democrats won Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and New Mexico. The races in Kansas and Alaska are not yet called, but the Democrat is leading. That works out to between 10 and 12 wins for Democrats, which is on the cusp between “very strong night for Democrats” and “extremely strong night for Democrats.”
5. How large is the net partisan shift in the control of state legislative chambers?
So far, the Democrats have flipped two chambers each in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and one each in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas and North Carolina. (Texas and North Carolina hadn’t even been on our watch list.) Additional chambers could flip in Arizona and Georgia. That means a net gain of between nine and 12, which easily fits the category of “extremely strong night for Democrats.”
6. Who wins the key state attorney general races?
Key races: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona
Democrats won Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. The Democratic candidate is also leading in Kansas and Iowa. That’s between eight and 10 wins, which is on the cusp between “very strong night for Democrats” and “extremely strong night for Democrats.”
7. Who wins the key secretary of state races?
Key races: Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona
Democrats won the races in Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada and Arizona. The race in Iowa is uncalled, with the Republican narrowly leading. That’s at least eight wins, which fits the category of “strong night for Democrats.”
Final verdict: The results ranged from “strong night for Democrats” to “extremely strong night for Democrats.” We won’t quibble; that’s clearly landmark blue-wave territory.
Check back in two years, and we’ll do this all over again!
