Democrats, don’t blow your shot with Gen Z this time

The young voters who upended expectations by shifting 21 points toward President Trump and the Republicans in 2024 aren’t done surprising the country just yet. In a sign of just how badly Trump’s party has fumbled its historic gains with Gen Z, a new batch of swing state polls shows America’s youngest voters deserting the party in record numbers.  

Gen Z’s 50 million eligible voters now back Democrats by an eye-popping 30-point margin. That easily beats 2020, when Joe Biden won young voters by 25 points. It approaches Barack Obama’s record-setting 34-point margin in 2008. Their political realignment could prove decisive in states like Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed (D) is locked in a tight race with former House Intelligence Chair Mike Rogers (R), and in swing districts across the country.  

Republicans have no one to blame but themselves. Despite promising young people economic prosperity, Republican mismanagement has instead delivered the worst job market for new graduates since the pandemic.

Trump’s broken promises helped turn Gen Z into the nation’s most pessimistic generation, a cohort deeply distrustful of institutions and even skeptical about democracy itself. They’ve seen Republican governance, and what they’ve seen is more than enough to turn their stomachs. 

Young voters care about many of the same issues as their older counterparts: they worry about affordability and the corrosive effect of inflation. More than most voters, they also express deep concerns about American military decisions in the Middle East. In 2024 they punished Biden for his inaction on Gaza; this year, they are focused on Trump’s unquestioning support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his spiraling war in Iran.  

Both parties have ignored Gen Z’s warnings that their votes should not be taken for granted. Now it is Republicans’ turn to pay the political price. What emerges from the 2026 midterms will be a bloc of young voters unlike any other generation in American politics — more willing to shop around, less committed to the aging idea of party loyalty, and firm in their belief that government is, at its core, a service industry.

Faced with the fresh memories of political disappointments in 2020 and 2024, young voters are abandoning the long-term party loyalties that define older generations in favor of a hyper-focus on issue politics. Gen Z voters are mobilized by candidates who put forward clear platforms and then deliver on their promises — that’s one reason why New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has such enduring popularity both at home and across the nation.

Gen Z might best be described as the “wait and see” generation. Their tendency to withhold their vote until a candidate has proven they understand the issues facing young people is so strong that it’s even showing up in swing-state polling. For a generation of voters burned by superficial promises from both Democrats and Republicans, party labels simply don’t carry the weight they used to.

A Marist poll of Ohio’s Senate race, conducted on Sept. 28, found that only 44 percent of Gen Z and millennial voters were strongly confident in how they will vote, compared to 76 percent of Gen X and 78 percent of baby boomers. When Marist polled them again on Oct. 18, it found voter certainty increased 3 points among Gen X and 7 points among boomers. The youngest generation had barely shifted at all, recording just a 1-point change. Talk about a hard sell. 

Given their hostility to party politics, it’s no surprise that more Gen Z and even millennial voters identify as political independents than any other age group. Many identify as progressive or liberal but feel let down by years of Democratic inaction. Even so, a record low number of Gen Z voters say they align with Republicans — and polls suggest that historic shift away from MAGA isn’t likely to change in the next two weeks. 

Republicans broke their promises to young voters, and in the process blew a historic chance to build a right-leaning youth coalition. Democrats now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to work together with Gen Z to achieve some of the nation’s long-delayed policy changes. For now, young voters appear ready to give Democrats a second chance.

If they are smart, Democrats won’t repeat the devastating mistake of taking young peoples’ votes for granted.  

Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.