Florida Democrats are facing their most favorable political environment in eight years. Polls show support for President Donald Trump has plummeted to historic lows while anxieties are rising about the ongoing Iran war and surging costs of living.
Yet as Democratic organizers, candidates and elected officials gathered in Orlando this weekend for their annual Leadership Blue conference, some said they worried about missing this moment, blowing an opportunity to gain power in a state where they haven’t won a statewide office in eight years.
“When we look at who’s at the top of the ticket, it matters, OK?” said Tamika Lyles, one of several Democrats running for the newly redrawn Congressional District 16, which covers parts of Pinellas, Manatee, DeSoto, Hardee, Polk, Sarasota and Hillsborough counties. “Voters want candidates who are authentic and that people can relate to. The people don’t want candidates the party chooses. That’s a concern.”
With a month before Democrats vote in the Aug. 18 primary, it’s natural that party differences are hashed out now.
But many candidates and activists who spoke with the Tampa Bay Times said that, while they’re enthused about their party’s overall prospects in 2026, they worry those leading the Democratic ticket are uninspiring.
White men with moderate appeal could lead the Florida Democratic ticket
Likely to be on the top of the ballot this fall are former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, the Democratic front-runner for governor, and U.S. Senate candidate Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council aide who testified against Trump during the 2019 impeachment hearings.
Both candidates, white men who don’t have long ties to Florida Democrats, are viewed by some progressives as milquetoast alternatives beholden to corporate interests at a time when liberal firebrands are in demand.
State Rep. Dotie Joseph of North Miami filed to run for governor last month after Orlando Mayor Jerry Demings dropped out, forgoing a showdown with Jolly, a former Republican.
“I got calls from a lot of Black people who were upset about the option of Jolly, that it showed a lack of diversity,” Joseph said. “Black women are feeling taken for granted. The Black community overall in Florida is feeling taken for granted. And when you have challenging races like this one, that does not help.”
Other progressives, however, said Jolly deserves credit for taking a risk to run.
“He started early, real early, before anybody else got in,” said Andrea Doria Kale, a Sarasota resident who sits on the executive board of the Florida Democratic Progressive Caucus. She said Jolly’s convinced her that he’s a populist and feels strongly enough about progressive issues. She said her colleagues on the left still need convincing, but that ultimately, they’ll vote for him.
“They’re not going to sit home, I can tell you that,” Kale said. “They’re scared to death that the Republican, Byron Donalds, will win.”
Will diverse voters turn out?
The question for statewide candidates is whether they can drive up turnout among voters who stayed home in 2022, when Democratic nominee Charlie Crist lost to Gov. Ron DeSantis by more than 1.5 million votes. An April 2026 study from Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research found that most respondents who stayed home in 2022 said they’ll support Jolly this year.
But some argue few inroads have been made with two key groups: Black voters and young voters. Some Black activists are miffed that state Rep. Angie Nixon, a Black woman who is running for U.S. Senate, has failed to gain the same establishment financial support as Vindman.
“Black voters are not confused,” wrote Gainesville-based activist Chanae Jackson, who supports Nixon, on Facebook. “Black voters are not lazy. Black voters are not the problem. Black voters are looking at a party that keeps asking for their loyalty while handing them crumbs, tokenism, and candidates they had no voice in choosing, and they are responding accordingly.”
Asked Saturday if she would urge her supporters to vote for Vindman should he win the nomination, Nixon said she would tell them to support the candidate who supports their values.
Would that be Vindman?
“I don’t know,” Nixon replied. “You should ask him that question.”
Asked why he’s a better choice for Democrats than Nixon, Vindman complimented her record, but said he had the experience for the job.
“Frankly, I’m going to be that fighter for as many Floridians as I can,” he said.
Young voters, meanwhile, lean Democratic but are less motivated to participate in politics. A candidate like Jolly leading Florida’s Democratic ticket may not depress the youth vote, but he may not galvanize turnout, either, said Ben Braver, 24, who’s running for a state House district that goes from Westchase to South Tampa.
“For the Gen Zers who care about politics, they don’t like that he’s a former Republican, ” Braver said. “They’re wary of him, of course. But … when they hear him speak, he has very good policy. He seems very enthusiastic about it. He seems like he actually cares about the people, not letting corporations scam us, not letting insurance companies scam us anymore.”
Voters are enthusiastic about firebrand progressives like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Braver said. Florida doesn’t have the biggest bench, he said, but there are some, like Oliver Larkin.
Larkin is running as a democratic socialist against U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz in the race for Congressional District 25 in South Florida. He said he picked up a major endorsement Saturday from the Florida Young Democrats.
“We want to open the party for young people,” Larkin said. “This is proof that we’re doing just that.”
Winning down-ballot races
While there was consternation about the top of the ticket, Democrats also said they feel genuinely hopeful that they have the momentum this year to achieve long-held goals.
Like undoing Republican gains on county commissions and school boards. Like breaking out of a superminority they’ve held in the Florida Legislature since 2022. March victories by Tampa’s Brian Nathan and Palm Beach County’s Emily Gregory for special state legislative seats have buoyed Democratic hopes for down ballot races, particularly if voter bitterness toward Trump holds.
U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost, a rising star in Congress, delivered a rousing address Saturday night that got the room of 1,000 attendees cheering. For a moment, their squabbles were forgotten as Frost talked about what was possible.
“The next chapter of Florida won’t be written by naysayers who have never knocked on a door in this state or in the South, but it’ll be written by the people in this room,” Frost said.
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