The Fourth of July holiday is the best baseball weekend of the regular season, in my humble opinion. Ballparks all over the country should be chock-full of people, and MLB hitters tend to be more focused when playing for more excited fans. One thing of note: There is a game at homer haven Coors Field in Denver tonight, and usually I’ll play someone to take one deep in the thin air, but I just don’t like the starting pitching matchup Friday, from a HR betting perspective. There are 13 games on the Friday MLB schedule, and all but one will be played in the evening.
Bet home runs at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I am playing for Friday’s games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I’m up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Giants’ Rafael Devers. Both are having disappointing offensive seasons but had good splits for their games. Guerrero cashed Over 1.5 total bases with two hits but no homers against Texas. Devers also cashed O1.5 TB with a double but didn’t go yard vs. Atlanta. My HR plays mean I prefer Over 1.5 total bases.
Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here:
Top MLB home run picks for Friday, July 3
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+257, DraftKings)
No rivalry is better in the majors right now than Padres-Dodgers, and they meet at 10:10 ET in L.A. Note that Ohtani is scheduled to pitch, but he should also hit. There have been a few times this year where the Dodgers have used him solely as a pitcher to keep the MVP favorite fresh. But he should be OK in that regard after the team pushed his scheduled Wednesday start in Sacramento back to Friday against bitter rival San Diego.
Ohtani has generally pitched on a weekly schedule, getting six days off in between starts, but will be on eight days of pitching rest for this one. Note that bumping him back now likely takes Ohtani out of pitching in the All-Star Game, because he will be on too short of rest. Ohtani has only pitched in one All-Star Game before, in 2021. He has has been named the starter as the DH.
The Dodgers are in the midst of playing 13 games in 13 days without one off. I will say that I generally prefer to avoid Ohtani the hitter when he is pitching because his batting numbers aren’t quite the same when he is just a designated hitter, but he did have two hits when pitching last time out against Minnesota. And I simply can’t ignore Ohtani’s career splits against Padres righty Michael King (5-7, 3.55 ERA).
Ohtani is 9-for-21 career off King with three homers and two doubles, good for a cool 1.452 OPS. Shohei might be a bit due as well, as he has just one dinger in his past nine games. King has been somewhat homer-prone this season, with 10 allowed in 17 starts, although he hasn’t allowed one in two outings spanning 11.1 innings against the Dodgers.
Also consider L.A. shortstop Mookie Betts, who is 6-for-19 off King with three homers.
Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $350 in bonus bets:
Junior Caminero, Rays (+280, FanDuel)
No weather concerns from Houston as the Rays and Astros open a potential playoff preview series at 8:15 ET. I was definitely hoping we might have a chance for history Friday night from Daikin Park. The MLB record for most consecutive games with a home run is eight by three players: Ken Griffey Jr. (July 20-28, 1993), current Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly (July 8-18, 1997) and Dale Long (May 19-28, 1956).
Tampa Bay third baseman Junior Caminero is a potential future AL MVP who turns 23 on Sunday. On Wednesday in Kansas City, the Dominican became the youngest player since at least 1900 to homer in six straight games to reach 24 on the season — Griffey had held the mark at 23 years and 246 days old when he homered in his sixth straight during that 1993 run — and tie the franchise record set by Carlos Peña from June 6-12, 2010.
Before Caminero, the last player to hit a home run in six straight games was Rafael Devers from May 15-20, 2024. Alas, Caminero was unable to make it seven in a row in Thursday’s finale in K.C., going 0-for-5. He was looking to become only the seventh player to have a seven-game home run streak and first since Mike Trout (Sept. 4-12, 2022).
I will say the weather helped Caminero in Kansas City this week, with winds blowing out, and that obviously won’t be the case tonight with the roof almost always closed at Daikin Park. But it’s a pretty hitter-friendly park. Caminero has never faced Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 4.00 ERA). He’s regressing big-time, going 0-3 in five June starts with a 9.00 ERA after entering the month 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA. Arrighetti has allowed three homers in back-to-back starts and nine on the year.
From this same game, consider Houston’s Christian Walker — if he plays after leaving Wednesday with back spasms — at +334 as he’s 6-for-12 career with a HR and double off Rays starter Nick Martinez.
Make MLB prop picks and more at Caesars Sportsbook and to double your winnings:
