The evening window of Friday’s MLB schedule features plenty of intriguing matchups, headlined by two division leaders meeting up when the Tampa Bay Rays clash with the Chicago White Sox, the Texas Rangers battling the Houston Astros in a key AL West series and the Boston Red Sox trying to measure themselves against the two-time defending champions Los Angeles Dodgers. Before making your wagers on Friday’s MLB games, you should see what SportsLine expert Adam Thompson is locking in for his best bets of the day.
An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in NFL, NBA and MLB betting. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, Thompson is up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps. You can find more of his picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Here are Thompson’s best bets and analysis for Friday’s MLB games.
Best MLB picks for Friday, July 31
Rays money line vs. White Sox (-136)
Nick Martinez is a stellar 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA. The bullpen behind him owns a 2.10 ERA since the All-Star break. That’s tough news for the White Sox, who have been very hit-or-miss with the offense of late. Over the last 10 days, Chicago has scored two runs or less four times and has a 4-5 record. Tampa has won eight of 10, keeping the Yankees at arm’s length in the competitive AL East. The Rays are an MLB-best 40-16 at home, too.
Sox starter Erick Fedde is an every-now-and-then starter who isn’t likely to go five innings. His ERA as a starter (4.61) is mediocre, and his ERA on the road (5.40) is even worse.
Nationals money line vs. Braves (+106)
What an interesting test for Nationals rookie lefty Foster Griffin. The budding star is 12-2 with a 2.70 ERA on the entire season and even better of late, going 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last seven starts. He’s already thrown 12 innings against the Braves, allowing a combined three runs on eight hits, winning both contests.
The Nats are 17-4 when Griffin starts and have scored more runs than any other team. It seems like another good spot here against Bryce Elder, who has a 6.94 ERA over his last seven appearances going against a lineup with a .913 OPS against right-handers since the break.
Red Sox money line vs. Dodgers (+112)
Ranger Suarez has been what the Red Sox have needed. The left-handed starter has a 3.02 ERA on the season, but it’s in the mid-2’s over the last two months, and he’s been better on the road than at Fenway. The Dodgers are rarely considered a “good matchup” for any opposing pitcher. But since the All-Star break, L.A. owns a .528 OPS against left-handers. Only the anemic Tigers have been worse.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are going the bullpen route. Their bullpen ERA since the break is at 5.11 – not on the same level as the Boston pen (1.57) that’s backing Suarez.
