Last week, U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost of Orlando, one of Florida’s most prominent progressives, announced his endorsement for U.S. Senate: state Rep. Angie Nixon, a Black progressive on the front lines of the resistance against Gov. Ron DeSantis.
It was a snub of retired Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a Democrat with a formidable war chest. Frost has also gotten behind former GOP Rep. David Jolly, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor.
Nixon’s surge in support has spectators wondering: Could she win the primary?
Vindman cut a national profile as the star witness during President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial, risking his job to accuse the president of pressuring a foreign government for political gain. He solidified front-runner status early, raising more than $16 million since announcing his candidacy in January. Nixon has lagged, raising more than $600,000, but donations have ticked up in recent months.
Nixon’s late-in-the-game momentum has reignited an old argument in the Florida Democratic Party. Should the party get behind a big fundraiser who appeals to moderates like Vindman, or does their best chance to defeat U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody lie with a spirited progressive?
It echoes the question before gubernatorial primary voters in 2018, when Democrats had to decide: back former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a Black progressive, or former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, a more moderate candidate with a significant fundraising advantage. DeSantis ultimately prevailed over Gillum by a fraction of a percentage point.
“I think it is very easy for us to forget, as involved Democrats, just how much cultural trust plays into a role in elections,” said Jackson McMillan, a strategist and CEO of Key Lime Strategies, which helps Democratic candidates with small-dollar fundraising and advertising. “I am not 100% confident on an Angie Nixon win. But what I am confident on is that the representative is going to surprise everybody on election night with how much of a vote share she gets.”
Here’s why support is mounting for Nixon with less than three weeks to go before the Aug. 18 primary.
Nixon picking up other backers
Frost isn’t the only local leader touting his support for Nixon. She’s earned endorsements from prominent state representatives such as Anna Eskamani, who is running for Orlando mayor, and Michele Rayner, who represents Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.
“Angie is someone who is willing to fight even when she’s the only one standing up,” Eskamani said as she announced her endorsement last month.
The endorsements demonstrate the credibility Nixon has cultivated with fellow Democrats in Florida, even as donors flock toward Vindman. Frost’s and Eskamani’s support could prove pivotal for Orlando voters, McMillan said.
Nixon announced her run for U.S. Senate just five days before Vindman.
A Black woman born and raised in Jacksonville, Nixon has spent almost six years in the state House opposing Gov. Ron DeSantis’ agenda. She staged a May sit-in at DeSantis’ office protesting the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting process. As a result, law enforcement charged her with two misdemeanors that she’s fighting in court. Nixon also took to the House floor with a pink bullhorn, accusing lawmakers of violating Florida’s constitution as they cast votes for the new congressional map, which ultimately became law.
She’s repeatedly called for a debate against Vindman. The retired lieutenant colonel has waffled on whether he’ll accept that challenge.
“Floridians don’t want the establishment in Washington, D.C., deciding who their Democratic nominee and U.S. senator is going to be,” Nixon said in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times. “I’m someone who’s willing to debate. He’s not. I’m someone who doesn’t have to be briefed on the issues Floridians are facing because I’ve been fighting the attacks alongside them for nearly two decades.”
There are other factors driving Nixon’s momentum. A July University of North Florida poll shows Nixon performing better against Moody than Vindman. (Moody still leads both Democrats in the poll by eight and 10 points, respectively).
Political onlookers say Nixon’s performance could mean that progressive nominees actually fare better against Republicans than more centrist Democrats.
Then there’s the social media backlash against Vindman. Content creators at Florida Democrats’ annual Leadership Blue gala recorded him walking briskly away as they called out questions.
The Florida Democratic Party said at the time that Vindman did not RSVP to speak to the content creators. Vindman’s spokesperson told the Miami Herald that the campaign team is extra vigilant after figures on the right have followed and filmed him.
But the videos fired up Black activists who support Nixon. They’ve criticized Vindman’s establishment financial support as tone-deaf.
“Black voters are not confused,” wrote Gainesville-based activist Chanae Jackson on Facebook. “Black voters are looking at a party that keeps asking for their loyalty while handing them crumbs, tokenism, and candidates they had no voice in choosing, and they are responding accordingly.”
Vindman cuts national profile
Vindman made waves when he announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate early this year.
He’s a military veteran who gained national attention when he acted as a whistleblower during Trump’s first impeachment trial in 2019. The following year, he retired from the Army, citing “bullying” and “intimidation” by the president. He’s appeared frequently as a national security analyst and Ukraine expert on programs such as “The Rachel Maddow Show” in the years since.
With his national profile comes an ability to fundraise. In the last two quarters, Vindman outraised Moody, who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in early 2025.
Vindman’s campaign has pointed to signs of grassroots backing: More than 114,000 donors contributed an average donation of $35, he told supporters in July.
Vindman has pledged not to accept dollars from corporate political action committees. He’s embraced positions popular with Democratic voters, such as opposing stock trading by members of Congress.
But he faces a sticking point on the issue of Israel. Vindman told reporters in July that “this war has gone on too long,” while calling Israel “a generational partner of the U.S.”
How does support of Israel play?
How the candidates describe Israel’s actions in Palestine sharply diverge, at a moment when party voters’ support is waning.
Vindman has not described Israel’s campaign as genocide.
Nixon, however, has used the word genocide repeatedly. In 2023, she floated a resolution in the Florida House that called for “an immediate de-escalation and cease-fire in the State of Israel and occupied Palestine.”
It was voted down, 104-2.
“We are at 10,000 dead Palestinians. How many will be enough?” Nixon said at the time. That number has since climbed past 73,000.
Since 2023, Democratic voters’ support for Israel has crumbled. An April Pew Research Center study found that 80% of Democratic-leaning voters held somewhat or very unfavorable views of Israel.
Nixon leading the charge against Israel may inspire progressive voters who would otherwise stay home, McMillan said, while Vindman’s lukewarm position could backfire.
Some progressive voters “just don’t see your leadership if you don’t align with them on those issues, right?” he said. “So I think that is a huge, huge vulnerability for him.”
Vindman’s case for victory
Vindman still has plenty of advantages that could help him prevail against Nixon, like deep pockets. August’s primary is only open to registered Democrats, which may draw more party loyalists who back the retired lieutenant colonel, McMillan said.
Vindman told reporters in Tallahassee on Thursday that he believes Florida Democrats won’t break for progressive candidates, as states like New York have seen.
“I think Floridians tend to be far less ideologically driven,” he said. “Folks are much, much more focused on pragmatic and practical candidates and folks that can deliver some real relief and folks with a strong track record.”
“I’ve attacked some of the most serious challenges this nation faced with regards to national security,” he added. Fighting corruption and lowering costs “is a challenge I can take on, and it’s something that is a good contrast point with anybody that I face.”
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