What can 100 remarkable betting stories teach us about winning, losing and the fine margins that separate the two?
In Episode 109, I’m joined by Paul Jones, racing trends expert and author of the new book 100 Punting Feats and Bad Beats, featuring extraordinary gambling stories from some of the biggest names in betting, bookmaking, racing and poker.
From Andrew Black’s life changing betting successes to Nick Goff’s heartbreaking 500/1 World Cup near miss, we explore what these experiences tell us about value, variance, hedging and the psychology of gambling.
We also discuss some remarkable stories involving James Lovell, Alan Alger and Ed Chamberlain, and why making the right betting decision doesn’t always produce the right result.
The book brings together 100 contributors and has been produced with Graham Wheldon to raise funds for Action for AT, supporting research into a rare and serious childhood condition.
You can listen to Episode 109 FREE now via Apple / Spotify / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)
100 Punting Feats and Bad Beats, available from Weatherbys: https://weatherbysshop.co.uk/products/100-punting-feats-and-bad-beats
You can also support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. You can get 150 days, commission free with them via this link.
Topics covered include
- Paul’s background in racing, betting and his work as a racing trends specialist
- How racing trends can help narrow down large fields and identify potential betting opportunities
- How popular racing trends have become absorbed into betting markets and how to best use them
- Finding an edge in Eurovision betting and why timing your bets is increasingly important
- The inspiration behind 100 Punting Feats and Bad Beats and how 100 contributors came together
- Andrew Black’s extraordinary Grand National and Spring Double betting successes
- Nick Goff’s agonising World Cup bet that came close to returning £250,000 at odds of 500/1
- James Lovell’s remarkable story of a £250,000 liability on a local Welsh rugby match
- Alan Alger and Ed Chamberlain on the risks and pressures of working in a bookmaker’s trading room
- Hedging, missed opportunities and the psychological challenge of watching a huge potential win disappear
- Why good betting decisions can still produce terrible outcomes, and what punters can learn from them
- The charity behind the book and Paul’s hopes for future collections of betting stories
Why Bad Beats Make Better Stories
“I’d say it’s actually probably about two thirds bad beats and a third a successful punt. I think more people probably enjoy reading about the bad beats.”
The Pain of Almost Winning £250,000
“Losing isn’t what hurts. It’s the thinking you’re going to win. Trust me, that’s the bit that takes some getting over. And I know, because 12 years later, I’m still not.”
Nick Goff, quoted during the podcast from his contribution to the book.
The £250,000 Bookmaking Nightmare
“Before they knew it, on just this local rugby union game, they’ve got a liability of a quarter of a million pounds.”
Paul Jones, discussing James Lovell’s extraordinary story of taking bets on a local Welsh rugby competition.
The Biggest Bet Paul Wishes He Had Hedged
“My head was in my hands thinking, why on earth didn’t I hedge out when it was 1/10 Paris?”
Paul Jones, recalling his substantial bet on Paris to host the 2012 Olympics, which ultimately went to London.
Good Decisions, Bad Results
“It spoke to the fact that Alan had a great process. Just a bad outcome. He did everything right, but he couldn’t control what happened in the end. And it speaks to value betting.”
Pete, discussing Alan Alger’s bookmaking story.
When Racing Trends Lose Their Value
“25 years ago they didn’t impact the market at all. The market was then finding those horses to the extent, actually, that I think now they’re overbet.”
Why Antepost Betting Has Become Harder
“You go back 10, 15 years ago and say a nice horse wins a novice hurdle at Newbury. You’d probably get 33/1 first show for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Now it’d be 16/1 or 20/1. Bookmakers are taking less and less chances on antepost betting.”
Getting Ahead of the Eurovision Market
“You’ve got to try and get on before all the songs are in. If you can work out that this song’s going to represent Portugal three or four weeks before Portugal announce it as their winner, that’s a good way of getting in early.”
