Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) surpassed her Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by a 10-point margin in the first poll matching up the gubernatorial candidates since the primary election in June.
According to a new poll conducted by Siena University, Hochul led with 49% of likely voters, and Blakeman trailed at 39%. Likely voters also favored Hochul’s policy, as more said the incumbent has better plans for affordability and New York’s energy future.
Blakeman, who has the backing of President Donald Trump, has an edge on the public safety front, as the polls found likely voters narrowly favored Hochul on plans to keep New Yorkers safe, with a 47-44 split in Hochul’s favor. Additionally, Blakeman is catching up to Hochul when it comes to addressing illegal immigrants, with respondents saying Hochul will do a better job by just 1 percentage point in a 45-44 split.
“While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she’ll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “That’s the good news for Hochul. The bad news is that voters think she’s better than Blakeman on four other issues – affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants – by between only one and seven points.”
Hochul also toppled her GOP competitor in surveys among New York City voters, with respondents favoring her by a whopping 45-point margin. Blakeman has the upper hand in the downstate suburbs, as the Nassau County executive led in the poll by 8 points in a 49-41 split. Upstate is a different story, however, as Hochul and Blakeman are polling neck and neck.
Both candidates have strong support from their party bases, but Blakeman holds a small margin of independent voters.
“Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8 and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9,” Greenberg said. “Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40.”
Greenberg noted that Hochul is held in low regard by independents when it comes to personality traits, which are toughness, honesty, getting things done, and being in touch with average New Yorkers.
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“While independents give Hochul negative ratings on all four traits, they overwhelmingly say Blakeman is tough and also say he gets things done,” Greenberg said. “Independents are divided on whether Blakeman is honest or in touch; they score him better on both than they do Hochul.”
New York has not elected a Republican governor in over two decades, and Hochul scored a solid victory during her first bid in 2022, winning by 6 points against Lee Zeldin, who now serves as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Before Hochul, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo led his GOP challenger Marc Molinaro by 23 points in the general election.
