Shawn Krest
• Betting Analyst
20+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 1, 2026 , 03:03 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Nationals and Miles Mikolas find a way to upset the Braves as +152 underdogs!
Washington +152
Bet Now
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Miles Mikolas of the Washington Nationals MLB
The Washington Nationals have lost three straight, including the first two games of a weekend set in Atlanta.
The Braves have won three in a row. The Nationals are +152 underdogs despite their bats heating up with the weather, however.
My Nationals vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks are calling for an upset as Washington breaks out of its skid on Saturday, August 1.
Who will win Nationals vs Braves tonight: Nationals moneyline (+163)
The Washington Nationals are over .500 this year and .593 on the road. For the Atlanta Braves to be -170 favorites, they’d better have an ace on the mound.
Instead, they have Reynaldo Lopez.
His FIP is nearly a full run worse than his ERA, and he’s susceptible to the long ball. That’s trouble against a Washington offense that leads MLB in OPS and home runs.
The Nats have boosted their OPS by 124 points in the second half, hitting 45% over league average. In July, they had an .895 OPS and 146 OPS+.
I’d take Washington money until about +140.
COVERS INTEL: Lopez has still not bounced back from the shoulder trouble that plagued the end of his 2024 season and cost him most of 2025. His fastball velocity was in the 96th percentile pre-injury and is now in the 44th percentile after losing 4 mph. The loss of velocity is more damaging because he’s also lost 150 revolutions of spin on his curve. His whiff rates are way down, and opponents’ average way up on every pitch he throws.Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Nationals vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+101)
Washington should get back Luis Garcia Jr., who missed Friday’s game to rest his knee.
He had a .941 OPS and 154 OPS+ in July. Unfortunately for the Nats, they’ll probably need every one of those runs they score, because they’re starting perhaps the worst regular member of a rotation in baseball.
Miles Mikolas has a 5.65 ERA, and his FIP (5.66) says that’s exactly where he should be. 94% of pitchers have better run value, and he’s in the bottom 1% in swing-and-miss.
The Braves scored 5+ in the first two games of the series and should keep that streak going against Mikolas.
Shawn Krest’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 28-35, -3.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 37-21, +3.70 units
Nationals vs Braves weather
It will be a humid night in the ATL, with winds blowing in from centerfield.
Nationals vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Nationals +163 | Braves -170
- Run line: Nationals +1.5 (-127) | Braves -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+104) | Under 9.5 (-108)
Nationals vs Braves trend
Over is 5-0 in Lopez’s last 5 starts in the division and 6-0 in Mikolas’ last 6 starts on grass. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Braves.
How to watch Nationals vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Saturday, August 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Nationals.TV, BravesVision |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Miles Mikolas (3-7, 5.65 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Reynaldo Lopez (4-3, 3.64 ERA) |
Nationals vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Pages related to this topic
