The Trump administration is back at war. It just doesn’t want to admit it.
In the 11 days since the United States resumed its air strikes against Iran, neither President Trump nor any other senior administration official has publicly addressed the campaign. U.S. forces began by striking Iranian military facilities but later expanded to attacking civilian infrastructure that the administration says is being used for military purposes. As of today, congressional officials had yet to receive classified briefings on the latest phase of the war, aides told us.
The Pentagon, whose leadership stepped in front of the cameras in the weeks following the start of the war, in late February, hasn’t held a press briefing since May to answer even basic questions: Why is a resumption of the war necessary? What are the strategic objectives, and how have they changed? How many casualties have American forces suffered? What would define success?
The president, who has repeatedly claimed the war was already won, scheduled a televised address to the nation last week. Instead of talking about the war, though, he focused on election security and mentioned Iran only in passing, telling the nation that “we are likewise winning big in Iran, and you will see the fruits of that labor very, very shortly.” (This is hard to square with the record of the past several months.)
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were on Capitol Hill this afternoon to plead for $67.1 billion for emergency military funding to replenish munitions and meet other needs, on top of the Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion regular budget request. Neither uttered the word Iran in their opening statement. Hegseth, in his testimony, referred to the war as “an operation.”
Even the deaths of American troops have been treated as though they belong to another conflict. After two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan by an Iranian missile on Friday, the Pentagon initially said that they died supporting Operation Inherent Resolve, the decade-plus campaign against the Islamic State. It then issued another statement saying that the two troops, along with a third who was killed in Iraq when an attack drone detonated, died while “supporting overseas operations”—but still did not explicitly mention Operation Epic Fury, the Pentagon’s name for the conflict with Iran. (Another service member, who had been reported missing in Jordan, is believed dead, the Pentagon said today.)
With those deaths included, at least 18 U.S. service members have been killed in combat since the war started—more than were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2016, 2017, and 2018 each, and only slightly fewer than the total recorded during the 12 years of Operation Inherent Resolve against ISIS. At least 1,700 Iranians have been killed, according to Iranian officials, including dozens over the past 10 days.
Trump is scheduled to attend the dignified-transfer service for the slain soldiers at Dover Air Force Base tomorrow. But his brief remarks saluting the fallen soldiers were quickly followed by his usual blustery insistence that the war was going well. Trump has lashed out on social media against Iran, vowing to punish its regime for killing Americans. But a senior official acknowledged to us that initial intelligence assessments had revealed that the new wave of U.S. strikes has likely done little to change Iran’s behavior.
Trump expected a quick victory, and so the military didn’t prepare for a prolonged conflict. There was no monthslong buildup of forces and no large-scale deployment of troops. Although the military surged additional forces into the region, many assets—particularly Navy ships—were diverted from other war theaters rather than trained for this conflict. The Pentagon has since extended the deployments of nearly half of those ships, further taxing an already-strapped force.
The U.S. teamed up with Israel in launching the war but didn’t ask for support beforehand from other allies. No country has offered to step in for U.S. forces or share the burden of Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the protection of U.S. troops in the region.
On Capitol Hill, Hegseth and Caine didn’t get a warm reception for their request that taxpayers cover the cost of “certain aspects” of the war, which they put at $37.5 billion.
The administration “chose to break every rule and said that everyone before them was stupid for using a playbook of talking to the nation, talking to allies, and setting goals,” one former senior military officer, who requested anonymity out of fear of retaliation, told us. “And now we are in a war with no good options and no U.S. and international support. It’s a bit of a trap of our own making.” Given that there appears to be no escape from that trap other than acknowledging defeat, the administration is expected to keep fighting, hoping that doing so leads to a better outcome.
Even some of Trump’s closest allies privately acknowledged that he is in a bind. His choice: Escalate the conflict and risk losing more American soldiers and depleting stockpiles of munitions while hurting Republicans’ election chances this fall, or walk away now to cut his political losses while leaving Iran in a stronger strategic position than it has held in decades. That would be the sort of humiliation that Trump loathes. But one Trump ally pointed us to a shift in rhetoric on Fox News; in recent days, a number of influential hosts, including Laura Ingraham, have floated the possibility of abandoning the war in an eleventh-hour effort to help the GOP at the ballot box. Trump, the ally noted, often uses his favorite cable channel as a gauge of public opinion.
Two people close to the president told us that Trump may at some point consider that sort of exit. But for now, despite the growing costs, he is continuing the fight. While sitting next to the leader of Lebanon in the Oval Office today, the president seemed to commit himself to the type of forever war he once derided: “We’re not finished at all,” Trump told reporters. “We’re not leaving right now.” He also said the United States is planning to bomb Pickaxe Mountain on the suspicion that it houses part of Iran’s nuclear program.
Military planners often say that hope is not a strategy—and neither is fighting a war while treating it as something less than that. One likely result is a protracted back-and-forth from which the U.S. ultimately retreats, hundreds of billions of dollars later. “This pickup game has turned into a marathon that we never mobilized for in the first place,” Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and an expert on naval operations, told us. “Now we’re having to mobilize for it on the fly.”
The administration’s apparent objective is to raise Iran’s cost of disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which was an open waterway until Tehran closed it in the early days of the war. Iran, meanwhile, is trying to raise the cost of the U.S. military presence in the region while using force to block ships from transiting the strait without its permission. Earlier today, a U.K. maritime agency said that a tanker operating in the strait was struck by an unknown projectile, leading its crew to abandon ship. Iran has also increased its targeting of U.S. naval vessels, American officials told us; both countries continue climbing the ladder of escalation.
As the war has dragged on, Tehran appears to have adapted. In the early days, Iran was able to overwhelm U.S. air defenses with relatively cheap drones. But more and more, the country is turning to cheap, quickly produced ballistic missiles. These missiles travel faster than drones and can do far more damage. In the span of 24 hours last week, Iran launched at least three ballistic missiles toward Jordan. One video from the attacks shows a missile striking a Jordanian base that the U.S. operates in, and no apparent attempt at interception, fueling concerns inside the Pentagon that commanders are conserving air-defense munitions at the expense of troop protection. Hegseth told the Hill on Tuesday that “everything our troops need on the battlefield, they’re getting in spades and beyond.” But the military also urgently needs more funds to replenish its stockpiles.
Over the course of the conflict, Trump has let deadline after deadline slide, while Iran has learned not to fear his bellicose threats. The president, his advisers have told us, understands that the war is hurting him politically but rages against those who say that his proposed deal on Iran’s nuclear program is weaker than the one President Obama brokered a decade before.
Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are backed by Iran, announced yesterday their intention to get off the war’s sidelines and close portions of the Red Sea to shipping, which could further inflame the global energy crisis. If anything, the war shows signs of broadening, not ending, whatever the White House says—or doesn’t say.
