FIBA Women’s World Cup: Which teams are the biggest threat to Team USA?

The 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup will tip off Friday in Berlin, Germany, and if Team USA wants to win a fifth consecutive gold medal at the competition, it will have to do something it hasn’t done in a decade: win a major tournament without four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson. 

The 2016 Olympics were the last time Team USA took home a gold medal at the Olympics or World Cup without Wilson, who has established herself as the best player in the world. While Wilson was initially named to the roster, USA Basketball announced Monday that she and Kelsey Plum would miss the tournament due to health concerns. 

While Team USA remains the favorite to win gold later, Wilson’s absence will make the task far more difficult. Wilson was Team USA’s leading scorer at the 2020 Olympics, 2022 World Cup and 2024 Olympics. She put up 21 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks in a one-point win over France in the gold medal game in Paris.

Women’s FIBA World Cup odds

Team USA has been drawn into Group D for the group stage and will begin its campaign on Friday against China, before facing Italy on Sunday and Czechia (+40000) on Monday. The knockout stage will begin with qualification rounds on Sept. 8 and 9. Team USA will likely qualify straight to the quarterfinals, which are set for Sept. 10, followed by the semifinals on Sept. 12 and the final on Sept. 13. 

Ahead of all the action in Berlin, let’s take a look at which teams have the best chance of upsetting Team USA. 

The long shots

🇨🇳 China

Team USA will face the biggest frontcourt in the world when it meets China in the group-stage opener on Friday. China boasts 7-foot-3 Zhang Ziyu and 6-foot-9 Han Xu, though 6-foot-7 Li Yueru will miss the event due to passport issues. No other country can match that size, and the Chinese will provide a unique challenge for all opponents. Size is the only advantage China will have on Team USA, however, and that won’t be enough over the course of 40 minutes. 

🇩🇪 Germany

The host country does not have a rich history in women’s basketball, but sisters Satou and Nyara Sabally have put Germany on the map in recent years. The Germans qualified for the Olympics for the first time in 2024, and were hoping to make some noise this year in their second-ever World Cup appearance. Alas, Satou Sabally will not participate due to ongoing concussion issues, which all but ended those dreams. They still have some WNBA talent in Nyara, Leonie Fiebich, Frieda Bühner and Luisa Geiselsöder, but not enough to seriously challenge Team USA. 

🇦🇺 Australia

The Opals suffered a massive loss when veteran shooting guard Sami Whitcomb was ruled out of the World Cup due to a left knee injury. Whitcomb was a key figure on Australia’s medal-winning teams at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups and the 2024 Olympics, and was named MVP of the World Cup Qualifying Tournament in Istanbul in March. Even at 38, she remained Australia’s best perimeter player, and the path to an upset over Team USA was heavily reliant on her going off from 3-point range. Ezi Magbegor and Alanna Smith are a solid frontcourt combination, but without Whitcomb, it’s hard to see how the Aussies have enough firepower to beat the Americans. 

You can see a path

🇪🇸 Spain

Team USA did not play any warm-up games for the World Cup due to the WNBA schedule, so the Americans’ last competitive game was their 14-point win over Spain in the final game of the World Cup Qualifying Tournament in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in March. The American roster heading to Berlin is even better, which makes it easy to write off Spain’s chances. 

And to be sure, Spain would be a big underdog. But the Spaniards have a nice mix of exciting young talent and experience in Awa Fam and Iyana Martín, the Nos. 3 and 7 picks, respectively, in the 2026 WNBA Draft, and Megan DiLeo, Raquel Carrera, Alba Torrens and Maria Conde. 

Like Belgium, the veterans have been together for a long time, and Spain is coming off a second-place finish at the 2025 EuroBasket Women and a fifth-place finish at the 2024 Olympics — the latter notably without Fam or Martín, who have given this group a major influx of talent. Spain would have no chance in a series against Team USA, but they hung around in their matchup six months ago despite shooting 4 of 16 (25%) from 3-point range. There’s enough there to envision a scenario where Spain can steal a game if everything goes its way. 

🇧🇪 Belgium

Belgium does not have many household names, but outside of the United States, no country has had more success on the international level in recent years. The Black Cats, who are now coached by three-time WNBA Coach of the Year Mike Thibault, have won the last two EuroBasket gold medals, finished fourth at the 2024 Olympics and fifth at the 2022 World Cup. 

Led by Emma Meesseman, who took this WNBA season off to focus on her international duties, Belgium is an extremely cohesive group that plays an unselfish style heavy on ball movement and 3-point shooting. During its World Cup Qualifying Tournament in China in March, Belgium went a perfect 5-0, assisting on a remarkable 156 of 171 field goals (91.2% assist rate) and shooting 65 of 151 (43%) from 3-point range.

Belgium cannot match Team USA, or even France, for that matter, on pure talent. But this group is competitive at every major international tournament. Crucially, the Belgians will not be afraid of the Americans. They hung right with Team USA until the final minutes at the 2024 Olympics in Paris and Team USA needed a buzzer-beating putback from Breanna Stewart to win their matchup in Antwerp during Olympic qualifying in 2024. 

🇫🇷 The main contender: France

Two summers ago in Paris, France led Team USA with less than five minutes to play in the gold medal game, but lost by a point because Gabby Williams’ foot was on the 3-point line when she made a shot at the buzzer. If a few plays had gone differently, the French could have ended the Americans’ Olympic dominance, which dates back to 1996. 

If any team is going to stop the Americans in Berlin, the French have by far the best chance. No other country outside of the United States has as many high-level WNBA players. 

Williams might be the Defensive Player of the Year and her Valkyries teammate Janelle Salaün is almost certainly going to be the Sixth Player of the Year. Carla Leite, Leïla Lacan and Pauline Astier are three of the best young guards in the league and Dominique Malonga is one of the best young bigs. Add in vets like Marine Johannès and Valeriane Ayayi, and France absolutely has the talent to win one game against Team USA. 

Crucially, France has the guards and wings to give Team USA a real test on both sides of the ball. The Americans will not be able to overwhelm them on the perimeter, as they’ve done to most of their opponents over the years. Leite is one of the best playmakers in the WNBA. Astier, Johannès, and Williams can all create their own shots. Johannès and Salaün are elite 3-point shooters, and Williams and Lacan are All-WNBA caliber defenders. 

The biggest issue for France in a potential matchup with Team USA will be in the paint due to the absence of center Iliana Rupert, who is pregnant. Without Wilson suiting up for the Americans, however, the talent gap down low is not quite as large as it would have been, which is great news for France.